***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 59.0 60.6 46.5 122.2 70.0 63.6 25.3 38.8 55.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 52.3 55.3 48.5 124.9 71.2 64.1 23.3 35.1 49.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 59.8 62.6 48.5 125.6 71.2 64.3 29.7 42.2 56.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 61.4 74.2 50.0 108.8 65.5 59.8 36.1 53.5 74.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 60.0 65.6 57.0 132.0 73.2 67.7 26.4 39.8 56.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 58.3 62.3 74.8 139.9 75.6 70.7 25.3 37.0 51.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 57.5 61.6 50.7 128.2 72.4 65.6 24.4 37.5 53.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 69.4 85.0 55.2 116.1 67.9 63.6 46.4 63.2 82.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 59.8 66.9 59.2 140.4 75.9 70.0 25.2 38.0 53.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 63.9 67.8 62.4 129.1 72.4 67.5 32.8 45.6 60.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 55.1 56.8 49.0 120.2 69.4 64.6 28.9 40.3 53.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 42.4 53.1 44.5 114.6 67.4 62.8 26.2 37.8 51.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 57.1 60.2 59.7 131.6 73.1 69.1 26.1 37.9 52.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 46 54 100 79.1 84.2 60.1 122.9 70.4 65.3 36.6 54.7 76.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 39.6 46.3 44.0 99.2 62.2 56.4 20.1 33.7 51.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 50.7 54.2 56.5 129.9 72.6 68.0 23.1 34.2 47.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 54.2 55.3 50.1 124.5 71.0 65.1 23.9 35.6 49.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 67.9 73.7 69.0 128.0 72.4 67.2 35.4 49.3 65.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 44.1 57.8 47.4 123.1 70.5 63.6 27.9 39.4 53.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 64.3 77.7 72.3 118.9 68.6 64.4 46.4 59.9 74.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 64.0 68.8 50.1 129.6 72.5 65.7 29.2 43.1 60.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 44.5 55.0 48.9 114.9 66.8 61.2 26.1 38.9 54.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 44.7 59.7 48.5 124.5 71.1 64.5 28.4 40.2 54.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 73.6 80.0 62.1 130.9 73.5 67.5 31.5 47.8 67.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 50.1 62.6 52.0 114.9 67.3 62.0 31.2 44.9 61.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 55.3 58.5 51.2 128.9 72.3 67.8 22.5 35.3 50.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 48.1 60.9 50.2 115.1 67.2 61.1 27.6 42.0 59.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 41.9 51.4 49.4 108.5 65.5 59.8 23.7 36.5 51.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 101.9 107.0 68.9 123.3 70.6 65.5 56.9 76.5 99.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 51.1 54.0 48.0 125.2 71.2 64.1 23.1 34.6 48.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------