***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 11.4 13.4 0.0 50.0 49.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.8 13.1 -0.1 47.4 46.9 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.4 13.3 0.2 53.6 52.0 12.2 13.2 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.8 11.5 0.2 53.3 52.7 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.6 11.5 0.3 55.5 54.6 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.8 10.0 0.4 58.8 57.5 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.0 13.0 -0.2 45.5 45.5 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.5 9.9 0.3 56.5 55.2 4.1 5.2 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.6 11.9 0.4 56.9 55.5 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.4 10.5 0.4 57.2 55.8 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.1 11.2 0.5 60.4 58.6 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.9 10.8 0.5 60.4 58.4 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.6 10.3 0.6 61.3 59.3 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.8 11.8 0.3 55.2 53.3 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.1 12.2 0.4 57.6 56.3 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 12.4 12.0 10.9 0.5 60.6 58.8 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.1 12.6 -0.2 45.6 45.6 10.4 11.4 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.2 9.7 0.3 55.1 53.9 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.3 13.2 0.0 50.9 49.7 10.2 11.2 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.0 8.2 -0.1 48.6 48.9 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.1 12.8 0.3 54.7 53.3 9.9 10.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.4 12.7 -0.1 48.2 47.5 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 11.1 11.0 13.1 0.3 55.3 53.2 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.2 11.6 0.3 56.5 54.7 10.0 10.9 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.5 12.0 0.1 52.0 51.1 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.6 10.5 0.4 57.1 56.0 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.4 12.6 0.0 50.2 49.4 10.1 11.4 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.2 11.8 0.3 56.0 55.1 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.1 9.2 0.2 54.7 53.7 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.3 13.3 -0.1 48.5 47.8 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------