***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 10.8 12.5 0.1 52.2 50.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 9.4 10.5 12.1 -0.2 47.2 47.1 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.0 12.3 0.2 53.2 51.0 11.8 12.8 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.9 8.7 10.4 0.2 54.2 53.2 7.2 8.4 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 8.3 10.0 10.4 0.4 57.6 55.1 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 7.6 9.2 8.8 0.5 60.0 57.1 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 9.8 10.7 12.1 -0.1 47.7 47.5 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.4 4.9 8.9 0.3 56.2 54.3 3.6 4.6 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 9.4 10.9 10.9 0.4 57.9 54.9 9.5 10.5 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.4 10.6 9.4 0.4 57.5 55.0 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 8.7 10.4 10.1 0.6 62.1 57.8 8.8 9.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.7 9.3 9.7 0.5 59.9 56.1 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 8.2 10.0 9.2 0.6 62.1 57.6 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.0 11.1 10.8 0.3 55.9 53.3 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 9.5 10.8 11.0 0.3 55.2 54.0 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 9.6 11.3 9.8 0.6 62.4 58.1 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 9.6 10.6 11.8 -0.2 46.6 47.1 9.8 10.7 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.1 9.4 8.8 0.3 55.3 53.5 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 9.6 10.6 12.1 0.0 49.2 48.4 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.7 5.6 7.3 0.0 50.7 50.9 4.8 5.5 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 9.1 10.6 11.8 0.3 55.9 53.0 9.2 10.2 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 8.6 9.6 11.7 -0.1 47.9 47.9 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 9.0 10.3 12.0 0.2 52.9 50.8 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.2 10.4 10.6 0.3 56.0 53.5 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 9.5 11.0 11.0 0.2 52.9 51.3 9.7 10.8 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 8.5 9.8 9.4 0.3 56.0 54.7 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 9.5 11.3 11.7 0.1 52.4 50.6 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 7.8 9.4 10.6 0.3 55.7 54.3 8.0 9.0 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.1 8.7 8.3 0.3 55.4 53.6 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.9 12.3 -0.1 48.7 48.0 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------