***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 9.2 10.6 -0.9 35.2 41.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 7.8 8.1 10.3 -1.0 33.3 39.7 8.0 9.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 10.4 10.8 10.5 -0.7 36.9 42.4 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.5 5.8 8.5 -0.8 34.5 41.1 5.7 6.9 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 7.0 7.5 8.6 -0.7 36.6 42.4 7.2 8.5 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 6.2 7.1 7.2 -0.4 41.4 46.0 6.5 7.8 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 8.2 8.4 10.3 -1.0 32.3 38.8 8.4 9.5 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 2.4 2.9 7.2 -0.7 37.1 42.9 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 8.4 9.0 9.1 -0.7 38.0 43.0 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.9 8.5 7.7 -0.7 37.7 43.0 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 7.4 8.1 8.3 -0.6 39.3 44.2 7.6 8.8 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 6.3 7.0 8.0 -0.6 39.5 44.4 6.5 7.7 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.9 7.7 7.6 -0.4 41.8 46.0 7.1 8.3 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.1 9.0 -0.6 38.4 43.2 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 8.4 8.9 9.1 -0.7 36.6 42.7 8.6 9.8 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 8.4 9.1 8.0 -0.5 40.6 45.1 8.6 9.7 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 8.4 8.6 9.9 -1.0 32.1 38.6 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.6 7.2 7.1 -0.7 37.0 42.6 6.9 8.1 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.0 8.6 10.4 -0.8 35.6 41.4 8.4 9.5 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.0 3.4 5.8 -0.9 33.6 40.6 3.3 4.5 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 7.7 8.2 10.0 -0.8 36.8 42.3 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 7.5 7.8 9.9 -0.9 33.7 39.6 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.4 10.3 -0.6 38.6 43.4 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 9.5 8.4 8.9 -0.6 38.5 43.5 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 8.1 8.6 9.2 -0.8 35.6 41.7 8.4 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 7.2 8.0 8.0 -0.4 42.1 45.8 7.4 8.5 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 8.2 8.8 9.9 -0.8 35.5 41.6 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 6.5 7.0 8.8 -0.7 36.1 42.0 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.2 6.6 6.6 -0.8 36.1 42.3 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 8.5 8.7 10.5 -0.9 34.1 40.4 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------