***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 11.2 12.9 0.0 50.0 50.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.4 12.5 -0.2 45.0 46.0 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.0 12.8 0.2 54.4 53.6 12.2 12.8 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.6 8.5 10.9 0.1 53.2 53.2 7.7 8.4 9.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.0 11.0 0.2 56.6 55.7 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.3 9.4 0.4 61.9 59.9 8.2 8.8 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.1 10.6 12.5 -0.2 43.9 45.2 10.2 10.8 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.9 9.4 0.2 56.2 55.4 4.1 4.7 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.1 11.5 0.3 58.3 56.8 10.2 10.8 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.7 9.9 0.2 56.9 55.9 9.8 10.5 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.4 10.6 0.3 60.0 58.3 9.4 10.0 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.2 10.2 0.3 60.7 58.7 8.2 8.8 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.9 9.8 0.4 61.9 59.8 8.8 9.5 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.3 11.3 0.2 56.9 55.7 10.4 11.0 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.2 11.7 0.2 55.8 55.2 10.4 11.0 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 11.6 11.4 10.3 0.4 62.6 60.3 10.2 10.9 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.7 12.1 -0.2 43.2 44.8 10.3 10.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 9.5 9.4 9.2 0.1 53.7 53.5 8.6 9.3 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.8 12.6 0.0 49.9 49.8 10.1 10.8 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.5 7.6 -0.1 47.7 49.0 4.9 5.6 6.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 10.6 10.6 12.4 0.2 55.1 54.4 9.7 10.4 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.9 12.2 -0.1 46.8 47.5 9.4 10.0 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 10.5 10.6 12.6 0.2 57.1 55.5 9.5 10.3 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 10.6 10.6 11.1 0.2 56.7 55.6 9.8 10.4 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 11.1 10.9 11.6 0.1 51.6 51.8 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.0 10.0 0.3 60.5 58.4 9.1 9.7 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 11.4 11.1 12.2 0.0 50.2 50.6 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.4 11.2 0.2 55.3 54.7 8.5 9.2 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 8.7 8.6 8.7 0.1 53.6 53.4 7.8 8.5 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.3 10.9 12.8 -0.1 47.3 47.8 10.3 11.0 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------