***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 26.2 24.8 0.8 61.3 59.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 26.3 25.6 24.7 0.8 61.1 59.3 23.2 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 26.4 26.2 25.4 1.3 67.6 63.9 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 18.2 18.9 23.2 1.0 62.7 60.6 16.1 17.7 19.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 27.0 27.0 24.4 1.6 70.0 66.4 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 25.9 26.3 22.6 1.9 72.7 69.1 22.4 24.0 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.9 24.4 0.5 57.4 56.4 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 15.2 15.5 22.8 1.9 72.7 68.5 12.2 13.6 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 26.6 26.7 25.2 1.7 71.6 67.4 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 26.2 26.4 23.6 1.8 72.4 68.1 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 26.6 26.9 24.4 1.9 72.6 68.7 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 26.0 26.4 24.0 2.1 74.6 70.3 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 27.1 27.7 24.4 2.4 76.6 72.3 23.6 25.1 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 26.3 26.1 24.0 1.3 68.0 64.4 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 25.7 26.1 24.5 0.8 59.6 58.1 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 27.5 28.1 24.5 2.1 74.5 70.4 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 24.3 24.3 24.0 0.5 57.6 56.6 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 25.2 25.2 22.4 1.5 69.4 65.5 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 26.1 25.7 25.1 1.1 65.3 62.4 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 21.2 21.2 20.3 1.3 67.5 63.9 18.3 19.7 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 26.6 26.4 25.3 1.3 66.9 63.7 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.1 24.1 0.6 59.5 58.3 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 26.2 26.1 25.3 1.4 69.8 65.7 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 26.0 25.9 24.0 1.4 69.1 65.1 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 25.3 25.5 23.5 0.7 58.9 57.7 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 26.6 27.0 23.7 2.0 73.3 69.8 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.3 24.0 0.6 58.6 57.5 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 25.7 26.5 24.1 1.2 64.4 62.0 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 20.6 20.6 21.5 1.4 68.4 64.6 17.7 19.1 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 26.1 25.5 25.0 0.9 62.4 60.2 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------