***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 22.1 22.2 -0.8 39.8 42.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 21.1 22.1 22.1 -0.8 39.0 42.1 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 21.4 22.5 22.4 -0.6 41.4 43.8 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 16.9 15.4 21.0 -0.7 40.2 42.5 14.8 16.3 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 24.4 23.0 21.1 -0.6 41.6 43.8 22.2 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 23.8 22.7 19.6 -0.4 44.5 45.6 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 20.8 21.7 21.9 -0.9 38.4 41.4 21.2 22.7 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.6 12.3 19.7 -0.6 42.0 43.9 11.6 13.0 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 24.1 22.8 21.5 -0.6 42.6 44.5 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 23.9 22.4 20.3 -0.7 41.6 43.6 21.6 23.2 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 24.3 23.2 21.0 -0.4 44.4 45.8 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 23.7 22.6 20.8 -0.4 44.7 46.0 21.4 23.0 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 24.8 23.8 20.5 -0.4 45.3 46.5 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 21.1 22.5 20.9 -0.6 41.9 44.1 21.5 23.3 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.1 21.5 -0.6 42.4 44.1 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 25.3 24.2 20.8 -0.4 44.8 46.1 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 20.3 21.2 21.6 -0.9 37.5 40.9 20.8 22.3 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 23.1 21.4 19.4 -0.8 39.7 42.0 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 20.9 22.0 22.3 -0.7 40.8 43.5 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.5 17.8 17.3 -1.0 37.7 40.6 17.4 18.9 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 21.6 22.7 22.1 -0.6 41.7 43.8 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 20.7 21.9 21.7 -0.9 38.4 41.8 21.3 23.0 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 21.1 22.5 22.3 -0.5 43.0 45.1 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 21.2 22.3 20.9 -0.7 41.5 43.6 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 23.7 22.1 20.9 -0.8 39.6 42.2 21.6 23.0 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 24.7 23.5 20.5 -0.5 43.7 45.2 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 21.2 22.0 21.4 -0.8 39.1 41.8 21.5 22.9 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 24.5 23.2 21.4 -0.6 42.1 44.0 22.4 23.9 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 16.1 17.0 18.4 -0.9 39.2 41.7 16.4 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 21.0 21.9 22.3 -0.8 39.6 42.5 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------