***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 22.7 21.2 -0.3 46.4 46.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 21.1 22.4 21.0 -0.4 45.0 46.0 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 21.1 22.7 21.3 -0.2 47.4 47.5 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 13.8 15.5 19.8 -0.3 45.9 46.9 14.3 15.9 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 21.3 23.2 20.0 -0.2 47.7 48.1 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 20.2 22.4 18.7 0.1 50.9 50.2 20.8 22.4 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 20.8 22.0 20.9 -0.5 44.3 45.4 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 10.1 12.0 18.7 -0.2 47.6 48.3 10.7 12.2 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 21.0 22.9 20.4 -0.1 48.4 48.4 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 20.5 22.4 19.2 -0.2 47.5 48.0 20.9 22.6 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 21.1 23.1 19.9 0.1 50.7 50.0 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 20.3 22.4 19.8 0.0 50.2 49.9 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 21.2 23.4 19.5 0.1 50.8 50.1 21.7 23.3 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 20.7 22.5 19.8 -0.4 45.7 46.5 21.3 22.9 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 21.2 22.8 20.2 -0.2 46.9 47.5 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 21.9 24.0 19.8 0.1 51.1 50.3 22.4 23.9 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 20.5 21.5 20.6 -0.5 43.6 45.0 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 19.8 21.4 18.4 -0.4 44.5 46.1 20.3 21.9 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 20.8 22.3 21.2 -0.3 46.3 46.8 21.1 22.6 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 15.8 17.2 16.3 -0.6 42.1 44.9 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 21.0 22.8 21.0 -0.2 47.7 47.8 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 20.9 22.3 20.6 -0.5 44.0 45.2 21.3 22.8 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 20.8 22.5 21.2 -0.2 47.6 47.7 21.2 22.7 24.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 20.7 22.4 19.9 -0.3 46.4 47.0 21.1 22.7 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 20.9 22.2 19.8 -0.3 45.9 46.5 21.2 22.6 23.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 20.8 22.8 19.3 -0.2 47.8 48.3 21.4 23.0 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 20.9 22.2 20.4 -0.4 45.6 46.2 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 21.2 23.0 20.1 -0.2 47.5 48.0 21.7 23.2 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 15.0 16.6 17.4 -0.6 43.0 45.3 15.6 17.3 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 20.8 22.2 21.2 -0.4 45.7 46.3 21.1 22.6 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------