***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 21.2 19.3 -1.2 35.8 39.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 20.1 20.5 19.0 -1.4 33.5 37.9 20.5 21.6 22.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 20.0 20.7 19.5 -1.1 36.8 40.2 20.4 21.6 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 12.3 13.0 17.8 -1.1 36.2 39.6 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 20.0 20.6 18.1 -1.1 37.0 40.4 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 19.0 19.8 16.8 -0.9 39.1 42.7 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 19.8 20.1 18.8 -1.4 32.5 37.2 20.1 21.2 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 9.7 10.3 17.0 -1.1 36.9 41.3 9.9 11.3 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 19.9 20.6 18.6 -1.0 37.5 40.8 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 19.7 20.3 17.5 -1.1 37.1 41.0 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 20.0 20.8 18.0 -0.9 38.7 42.0 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 19.4 20.1 17.9 -1.0 38.5 42.4 19.6 21.0 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 20.5 21.2 17.6 -0.9 38.8 42.6 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 20.6 21.2 18.2 -1.2 36.2 40.4 21.0 22.1 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 19.5 20.2 18.2 -1.0 37.6 40.4 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 20.8 21.5 17.9 -0.9 38.8 42.3 21.1 22.4 23.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 19.5 19.7 18.5 -1.5 31.2 36.5 19.8 20.8 21.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 19.3 19.9 16.8 -1.2 35.7 40.3 19.6 20.9 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 19.8 20.4 19.3 -1.2 35.0 39.0 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 15.8 16.2 14.8 -1.3 33.5 39.6 16.1 17.4 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 19.9 20.6 19.1 -1.1 37.1 40.4 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 20.1 20.5 18.6 -1.4 32.1 37.2 20.5 21.6 22.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 20.2 20.8 19.3 -1.1 36.9 40.4 20.5 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 20.1 20.8 18.2 -1.1 36.8 40.7 20.5 21.7 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 19.3 19.9 17.9 -1.2 35.8 39.4 19.7 20.9 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 22.3 20.7 17.5 -1.0 37.4 42.0 20.3 21.7 22.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 19.7 20.2 18.5 -1.2 35.1 38.9 20.1 21.3 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 19.4 20.1 18.2 -1.0 37.3 40.5 19.7 21.3 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 15.0 15.6 15.9 -1.3 34.7 40.1 15.4 16.7 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 19.8 20.3 19.2 -1.3 34.5 38.6 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------