***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 22.8 21.9 -0.3 43.7 44.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 21.9 22.6 21.7 -0.5 41.9 42.9 22.1 23.0 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 23.5 23.0 22.2 -0.2 47.1 47.2 22.3 23.1 23.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.4 15.8 20.4 -0.3 44.8 45.7 15.1 16.0 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 23.8 23.4 20.9 -0.1 48.8 48.8 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 23.0 22.7 19.4 0.2 53.0 52.0 21.6 22.6 23.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 21.6 22.1 21.5 -0.6 40.0 41.3 21.8 22.7 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.5 19.5 0.0 49.9 49.4 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.2 21.4 0.0 49.9 49.5 22.3 23.2 24.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 23.3 22.8 20.2 0.0 49.5 49.1 21.9 22.9 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 23.7 23.4 20.8 0.1 52.6 51.6 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 23.0 22.8 20.6 0.2 53.4 52.2 21.7 22.6 23.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 24.1 23.9 20.5 0.3 54.9 53.4 22.7 23.7 24.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 23.7 23.0 20.7 -0.2 46.1 46.3 22.2 23.2 24.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.1 21.1 -0.3 45.4 46.2 22.5 23.3 24.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 24.6 24.4 20.8 0.2 53.8 52.7 23.2 24.2 25.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 21.1 21.7 21.2 -0.6 38.7 40.3 21.3 22.2 23.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.0 19.2 -0.2 45.5 45.9 21.3 22.2 23.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 21.7 22.5 22.0 -0.3 44.8 45.2 21.9 22.8 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.8 18.1 17.2 -0.4 42.5 43.6 17.6 18.5 19.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.1 21.9 -0.1 47.4 47.6 22.3 23.2 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 21.7 22.4 21.3 -0.5 40.0 41.4 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 23.4 22.9 22.0 -0.1 48.2 47.9 22.1 23.0 23.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 23.4 22.8 20.8 -0.2 47.1 47.1 22.0 23.0 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 23.2 22.4 20.5 -0.4 42.8 43.9 21.9 22.8 23.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 23.8 23.5 20.3 0.1 51.5 50.8 22.4 23.4 24.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 21.8 22.4 21.1 -0.4 41.9 43.1 21.9 22.8 23.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 23.8 23.3 20.9 -0.2 47.1 47.6 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.5 18.3 -0.3 43.8 44.6 16.9 17.8 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 21.7 22.5 21.9 -0.4 43.2 43.9 21.9 22.8 23.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------