***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 19.3 19.0 143.2 76.1 63.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 19.0 26.3 20.0 163.2 79.9 69.4 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 18.8 21.5 17.5 137.8 74.8 62.1 4.0 8.6 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.7 16.0 16.0 104.4 66.6 56.1 4.0 8.6 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 9.5 12.1 14.6 100.0 64.6 52.9 2.8 6.5 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.7 15.5 104.8 66.7 52.5 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 19.5 29.1 21.3 171.6 81.4 70.6 4.1 9.0 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.4 15.6 14.0 87.8 60.1 49.0 5.6 11.1 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.2 12.7 14.5 102.5 65.0 52.5 3.8 7.7 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.2 12.6 15.4 96.3 62.7 51.0 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.6 13.1 90.3 61.6 49.7 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.8 9.2 11.4 80.2 58.6 46.9 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.6 8.5 12.3 82.8 59.5 47.2 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.0 24.9 20.3 125.7 71.8 60.0 4.5 10.5 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.8 9.8 15.5 110.4 68.0 55.3 2.1 4.8 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.9 9.6 12.9 87.8 61.1 49.4 3.2 6.6 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 21.3 33.0 22.9 187.7 83.6 74.0 4.0 8.9 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.7 16.8 18.0 105.5 65.2 53.5 5.2 10.2 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 20.2 25.9 18.9 149.9 77.4 66.7 4.9 9.9 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 19.9 19.4 107.1 65.8 53.1 5.5 11.4 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.7 17.2 15.8 118.2 70.0 57.0 4.2 8.5 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 20.0 28.8 22.2 168.1 80.7 70.7 4.5 9.5 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 16.8 19.3 18.1 133.0 73.7 62.8 4.5 8.8 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.4 19.3 18.2 119.2 69.5 57.5 4.3 9.3 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.6 19.6 19.0 123.7 71.7 60.2 4.3 9.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.5 10.5 76.6 57.2 45.8 2.5 5.6 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 21.2 24.6 20.5 138.4 75.1 63.6 4.5 9.7 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.2 8.9 14.2 96.9 64.2 53.0 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.6 26.4 18.8 106.3 65.3 53.0 9.0 16.5 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 17.5 23.6 19.2 154.3 78.3 67.1 4.0 8.5 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------