***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 17.5 13.6 137.3 74.8 55.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.3 15.7 13.7 141.9 75.8 58.4 3.7 6.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 10.0 18.4 14.7 154.2 78.3 59.4 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.1 22.4 16.9 173.3 81.4 59.3 3.7 7.5 13.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.9 17.8 16.6 167.8 80.6 60.9 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 11.8 16.9 21.4 169.7 80.9 61.8 3.5 6.4 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.9 16.6 13.7 140.6 75.5 58.9 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 23.0 34.9 19.1 179.5 82.5 64.3 5.3 10.9 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.0 22.1 16.6 167.5 80.7 60.5 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 14.9 22.4 19.0 176.3 82.1 63.5 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 13.0 19.3 15.4 169.6 80.8 61.3 2.8 6.0 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 12.5 18.3 15.5 172.4 81.3 61.0 3.1 6.3 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.7 17.8 17.4 158.2 78.9 60.8 3.1 6.4 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 19.8 25.0 18.0 147.3 76.9 60.6 4.3 9.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.3 21.1 16.7 186.6 83.1 56.6 2.5 5.6 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.1 15.0 16.3 162.8 79.8 60.5 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.1 13.8 13.1 130.2 73.3 56.5 3.8 6.9 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 16.7 26.5 21.7 173.5 82.0 65.1 3.8 8.1 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.1 16.2 13.8 143.5 76.1 58.3 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 19.1 26.9 25.2 161.3 79.6 66.3 4.5 9.4 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.9 23.9 14.8 158.8 79.1 58.4 3.2 7.6 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.8 14.6 13.3 125.6 72.1 55.8 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.5 17.6 14.4 148.3 77.1 59.3 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 18.8 28.2 18.6 166.5 80.7 62.4 3.7 8.4 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.9 17.5 16.8 148.7 77.1 58.3 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 12.1 17.0 16.1 173.4 81.3 59.2 3.4 6.3 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.8 16.1 15.5 132.9 73.8 56.3 3.2 6.8 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.9 19.8 17.2 185.9 83.1 59.0 2.6 5.7 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 24.6 35.4 22.9 164.4 80.3 64.8 6.0 12.2 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.4 15.7 14.0 145.5 76.6 58.6 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------