***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 11.0 13.7 135.3 74.6 56.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.1 11.8 12.3 114.1 69.2 54.5 3.7 6.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.8 16.8 12.6 126.4 72.3 55.7 4.7 8.5 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 21.9 23.9 15.5 126.3 73.1 56.8 5.4 10.9 18.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.1 16.1 14.6 121.5 71.7 55.7 3.5 7.4 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.3 14.3 16.3 107.9 68.2 53.6 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.7 11.9 13.5 120.2 70.9 56.1 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.7 21.1 15.1 116.4 69.9 54.3 6.6 11.8 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.2 14.9 14.4 124.0 72.0 55.6 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.5 17.9 15.1 116.4 69.9 54.9 5.3 9.8 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.3 13.9 12.9 111.9 69.3 53.4 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.8 13.1 12.3 110.2 68.6 52.5 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.4 13.1 13.7 102.8 66.7 52.7 3.9 7.6 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.3 17.5 14.1 104.5 66.2 53.2 5.8 10.7 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.3 18.3 15.6 132.0 74.4 56.0 3.7 7.9 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.0 11.6 13.1 103.5 67.2 52.6 3.6 6.8 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.3 9.3 12.6 111.1 68.1 52.9 3.2 5.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.4 18.7 16.6 112.9 68.9 56.5 4.7 9.5 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.7 11.9 11.6 111.5 68.3 53.2 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 22.5 21.2 20.6 116.7 69.8 57.7 5.3 10.8 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 16.1 17.1 13.6 129.6 73.3 55.6 4.2 8.1 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.8 10.6 12.3 110.1 67.6 52.5 3.5 6.3 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.6 12.8 11.4 109.0 67.4 52.0 4.6 7.9 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.4 16.9 14.4 113.8 68.9 55.5 4.9 9.2 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 18.1 19.9 16.0 133.9 74.4 57.7 5.2 9.5 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.9 12.8 12.4 104.7 67.2 52.6 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 17.4 18.8 15.6 133.2 74.1 57.2 4.4 8.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.5 14.0 14.9 119.4 71.6 54.9 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 29.5 27.8 17.9 113.1 68.8 57.2 8.0 15.2 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.2 11.5 12.6 120.6 70.9 55.4 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------