***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 11.1 10.6 108.7 68.4 48.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.3 9.4 11.3 113.1 69.2 48.8 2.0 4.5 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.9 10.8 10.8 105.7 67.5 47.8 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.0 22.9 11.2 109.1 69.1 50.4 7.0 12.8 20.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.3 15.7 11.7 116.0 70.5 50.3 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.6 14.0 13.2 110.2 69.2 53.2 3.1 6.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.0 11.2 10.9 111.0 68.5 48.9 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.8 19.5 13.8 122.0 71.6 52.4 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.6 14.2 12.5 122.3 71.8 49.7 4.4 7.8 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.2 15.6 13.6 119.8 71.2 51.3 4.9 8.6 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.6 14.5 10.9 112.5 69.4 50.3 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.3 13.5 11.0 117.0 70.4 50.1 3.0 6.5 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.9 12.4 11.5 110.3 69.0 51.5 3.2 6.5 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.8 18.0 13.4 108.3 68.4 50.5 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.8 14.3 10.4 103.3 68.0 48.8 3.2 7.1 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.1 10.9 10.5 106.8 68.1 50.6 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.3 10.5 11.4 123.6 71.6 48.8 2.3 4.7 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.6 13.5 15.2 116.0 70.2 51.1 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.1 10.6 11.3 112.2 69.1 48.6 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.1 16.8 19.5 121.5 71.5 53.5 4.7 8.6 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.1 13.0 11.3 114.4 69.9 47.9 4.1 7.3 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.7 12.2 12.4 130.3 73.3 50.7 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.0 12.9 11.4 107.9 68.2 48.5 3.8 7.1 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.4 14.6 13.0 109.9 68.7 49.7 5.3 8.9 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.9 13.7 11.9 111.8 69.3 49.5 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.3 14.2 11.2 115.0 70.3 51.4 2.6 6.2 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.8 9.8 11.5 110.7 68.8 49.5 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.5 17.4 10.5 105.4 68.2 49.9 4.8 9.5 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.0 20.6 16.6 116.6 70.4 52.2 6.6 11.6 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.8 9.5 10.9 108.6 68.1 48.6 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------