***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 59.8 56.8 132.2 73.9 64.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 54.8 62.9 57.3 134.3 75.2 66.0 24.7 37.0 51.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 60.1 66.4 55.6 131.1 73.9 63.9 30.4 42.7 57.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 79.6 84.3 59.6 125.2 71.1 62.5 37.2 54.9 75.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 46.7 62.5 57.4 123.5 70.5 61.6 27.2 40.7 57.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 43.4 56.3 66.4 121.9 69.9 62.0 26.3 38.2 52.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 58.5 69.2 59.3 137.5 76.4 67.4 24.7 38.1 54.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 83.6 85.9 61.9 121.9 69.9 62.9 46.9 62.7 80.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 58.6 62.1 58.0 126.4 71.7 61.9 26.8 39.6 55.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 52.5 65.9 63.1 123.4 70.5 62.5 34.2 46.8 61.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 46.1 55.6 52.2 116.7 68.0 60.4 29.8 40.9 53.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 43.8 53.2 50.3 114.8 67.4 60.1 27.0 38.4 51.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 42.6 50.9 55.0 110.7 65.6 58.4 26.4 37.7 51.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 65.7 86.2 65.9 121.3 70.0 61.4 37.6 56.4 79.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 59.2 62.3 58.3 129.8 72.6 62.6 21.5 35.2 52.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 38.5 46.4 52.8 111.9 66.1 58.7 23.4 34.0 46.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 54.2 65.1 60.0 140.1 77.5 68.8 21.6 34.1 49.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 71.1 74.0 71.5 124.6 71.4 63.3 36.8 51.0 67.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 58.0 64.3 55.6 130.2 73.6 64.2 28.3 40.7 55.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 79.5 83.3 84.8 125.5 71.6 65.2 49.7 62.8 77.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 64.4 69.4 55.5 128.9 72.6 62.3 29.5 43.7 60.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 55.7 65.9 60.1 135.3 75.7 66.8 25.8 38.3 53.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 47.7 62.1 55.2 124.8 71.4 62.1 29.0 41.5 55.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 74.0 78.1 64.2 126.0 72.0 63.2 32.6 49.1 68.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 67.1 71.0 63.7 129.2 72.8 63.2 29.4 43.8 61.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 41.4 51.7 50.3 112.6 66.7 59.3 23.6 35.8 50.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 64.1 69.9 63.1 129.9 73.1 64.0 27.0 41.7 59.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 44.3 58.2 56.7 122.6 70.2 61.2 25.6 38.0 53.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 104.3 108.7 76.2 123.6 71.0 63.4 57.7 77.5 100.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 53.3 60.3 56.8 133.3 74.8 65.3 23.7 35.6 49.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------