***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9.6 9.2 11.9 -1.9 19.4 25.4 10.1 11.1 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 9.2 9.0 11.7 -1.7 21.6 27.0 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 11.7 11.3 12.1 -1.8 19.2 25.5 12.2 13.2 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 7.2 7.0 9.7 -1.4 24.2 30.4 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 8.6 8.2 10.1 -1.7 20.2 26.8 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 8.1 8.0 8.3 -1.2 26.8 33.0 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 9.8 9.5 11.8 -1.7 21.2 26.6 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 3.6 3.4 8.2 -1.5 22.3 29.4 4.1 5.2 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 9.9 9.6 10.3 -1.5 22.2 28.1 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 9.6 9.4 8.9 -1.4 22.9 29.2 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 9.3 9.1 9.9 -1.5 22.5 28.4 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 8.1 7.8 8.9 -1.6 21.3 28.2 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 8.6 8.4 8.6 -1.5 23.2 28.8 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 10.1 9.9 10.1 -1.6 21.3 27.1 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 10.6 10.7 11.7 -1.0 30.1 34.4 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 10.0 9.7 9.2 -1.5 22.6 28.7 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 9.9 9.8 11.5 -1.6 22.5 27.7 10.4 11.4 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 8.3 8.1 8.1 -1.6 21.2 28.0 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 9.6 9.4 11.8 -1.7 21.0 26.7 10.2 11.2 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 4.6 4.3 6.4 -1.6 21.0 28.6 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 9.4 9.0 11.4 -1.7 21.0 27.0 9.9 10.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 8.9 8.8 11.7 -1.6 22.1 27.5 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 8.8 8.6 11.7 -1.8 19.4 25.3 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 9.5 9.3 10.0 -1.6 21.1 27.1 10.0 10.9 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 9.8 9.3 11.0 -1.9 19.4 25.9 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 8.8 8.5 7.9 -1.8 19.5 26.3 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 9.4 9.0 11.5 -1.8 20.8 26.6 10.1 11.4 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 8.7 8.7 10.2 -1.2 27.7 32.8 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 7.2 6.9 7.5 -1.5 21.3 28.5 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 9.7 9.4 11.9 -1.8 20.5 26.2 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------