***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.7 12.5 0.2 52.5 51.3 9.7 10.6 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.1 10.9 12.1 0.2 53.1 52.0 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.9 12.5 0.1 51.8 51.1 11.8 12.8 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.9 9.1 10.2 0.5 59.4 56.5 7.2 8.4 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 8.3 9.7 10.0 0.1 52.6 51.9 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.0 9.1 8.8 0.5 59.0 56.7 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.0 12.2 0.2 53.5 52.1 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.7 8.4 0.2 52.8 52.2 3.6 4.6 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 9.3 10.5 10.2 0.1 51.3 51.1 9.5 10.5 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.3 10.4 8.9 0.1 52.5 52.0 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 8.6 9.9 9.6 0.1 52.7 52.2 8.8 9.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.9 9.0 0.1 52.5 51.8 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 8.3 9.5 8.4 0.2 53.0 52.2 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.1 10.4 0.2 54.3 53.2 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.9 11.2 11.5 0.7 62.6 58.5 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.9 9.1 0.2 54.3 53.2 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 11.1 10.9 11.8 0.2 53.3 52.3 9.8 10.7 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.3 8.1 0.1 52.6 52.4 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.8 12.1 0.2 52.8 51.9 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.6 6.4 0.2 52.6 52.5 4.8 5.5 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 9.1 10.3 11.5 0.1 50.9 50.5 9.2 10.2 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.0 11.8 0.3 54.6 53.6 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.3 12.1 0.1 52.2 51.5 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.3 10.0 0.2 53.7 53.0 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.2 11.3 0.4 55.7 53.8 9.7 10.8 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 8.6 9.6 8.2 0.1 52.1 51.5 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.5 12.0 0.3 55.4 53.3 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.6 10.4 0.6 60.6 57.3 8.0 9.0 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.8 8.5 7.7 0.1 52.6 52.5 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.1 12.4 0.2 53.0 51.8 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------