***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 25.2 23.9 23.7 -0.6 41.8 43.0 23.1 24.6 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 22.8 23.0 23.0 -1.5 30.2 32.7 23.2 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 25.3 23.3 23.3 -1.4 33.1 35.4 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 18.2 18.8 21.9 0.8 61.0 59.4 16.1 17.7 19.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 25.7 24.7 22.4 -0.4 44.8 45.8 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 24.5 25.2 21.7 1.0 62.5 61.3 22.4 24.0 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 22.7 22.8 23.0 -1.4 32.0 34.3 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 14.0 13.1 20.5 -0.5 44.4 45.3 12.2 13.6 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 25.3 24.0 23.1 -0.7 40.9 42.5 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 24.9 23.8 21.2 -0.6 42.5 43.8 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 25.4 24.1 22.7 -0.8 40.6 42.0 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 24.6 23.8 21.9 -0.2 47.1 47.7 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 25.6 25.1 23.1 -0.1 49.4 49.6 23.6 25.1 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 22.7 22.7 21.5 -1.9 26.3 29.9 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 25.7 26.0 24.8 0.6 58.1 57.1 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 26.2 25.7 22.9 0.0 50.1 50.2 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 21.7 21.7 22.3 -1.8 26.5 29.4 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 24.2 22.5 19.9 -1.0 37.1 39.1 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 22.6 22.7 23.0 -1.6 29.6 32.2 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 20.2 19.1 18.5 -0.6 42.1 43.5 18.3 19.7 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 25.5 24.1 23.5 -0.8 39.1 40.9 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 22.4 22.3 22.2 -1.8 25.7 29.1 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 22.6 22.7 22.8 -1.9 27.2 30.1 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 22.7 22.9 21.8 -1.5 31.7 34.5 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 25.2 24.4 22.9 -0.3 45.5 46.3 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 25.4 24.9 21.7 0.0 49.4 49.6 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 25.1 24.2 23.4 -0.4 44.6 45.4 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 25.7 26.2 23.2 0.8 60.8 59.3 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.6 18.0 19.3 -1.1 36.1 38.2 17.7 19.1 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 22.8 23.0 23.2 -1.4 32.7 34.9 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------