***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 20.6 20.9 21.9 -1.4 31.4 38.0 21.0 22.6 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 21.0 21.2 21.8 -1.6 30.0 36.0 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 21.1 21.1 21.8 -1.9 27.1 34.3 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 14.3 15.6 19.9 -0.6 42.1 45.7 14.8 16.3 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 21.5 21.8 20.2 -1.7 28.6 35.9 22.2 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 21.1 21.8 18.6 -1.3 33.7 40.0 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 20.7 20.9 21.6 -1.6 30.0 35.9 21.2 22.7 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 11.0 11.1 18.6 -1.8 28.4 35.7 11.6 13.0 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 21.1 21.4 20.8 -1.7 28.5 35.7 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 20.8 21.2 19.3 -1.7 29.5 36.5 21.6 23.2 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 21.5 21.4 20.2 -2.0 25.9 33.4 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 20.7 20.9 19.7 -1.9 27.7 35.2 21.4 23.0 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 21.8 21.9 19.8 -2.0 26.7 34.9 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 20.7 20.8 20.2 -1.9 26.9 33.5 21.5 23.3 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 21.9 23.1 22.0 -0.6 41.6 44.8 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 22.3 22.8 20.1 -1.7 29.3 36.6 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 20.2 20.5 21.4 -1.5 30.1 35.6 20.8 22.3 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 20.0 20.4 18.5 -1.8 29.0 36.0 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 20.8 20.9 21.8 -1.7 29.2 35.4 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 16.7 16.9 16.6 -1.8 28.2 36.0 17.4 18.9 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 21.2 21.4 21.4 -1.7 28.1 35.4 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 20.6 21.2 21.5 -1.4 31.8 36.9 21.3 23.0 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 20.9 20.8 21.7 -2.0 26.3 33.0 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 20.7 20.9 20.2 -1.9 27.1 34.3 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 21.0 21.5 20.6 -1.3 32.5 39.0 21.6 23.0 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 21.6 21.7 19.0 -2.1 25.8 34.3 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 21.0 21.5 21.3 -1.3 33.0 39.3 21.5 22.9 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 22.0 23.2 20.8 -0.6 41.5 45.2 22.4 23.9 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 15.7 15.8 17.8 -1.9 27.7 35.0 16.4 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 20.8 21.0 21.8 -1.6 29.4 35.8 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------