***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 21.6 21.9 21.3 1.0 60.9 58.7 19.9 21.1 22.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 21.9 22.0 21.0 0.6 57.0 55.6 20.5 21.6 22.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 22.0 22.2 21.5 0.8 58.8 57.2 20.4 21.6 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 16.1 16.0 19.8 1.6 68.0 63.4 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 23.0 22.5 20.1 1.1 61.5 59.0 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 22.4 22.0 18.6 1.4 65.0 61.0 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 21.5 21.6 20.9 0.6 56.9 55.5 20.1 21.2 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.0 18.8 0.9 59.2 57.6 9.9 11.3 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 23.0 22.4 20.4 1.1 61.5 59.2 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 22.7 22.1 19.5 1.1 61.3 59.2 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 23.1 22.4 20.1 1.0 60.2 58.3 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 21.6 21.8 19.9 0.9 59.2 57.6 19.6 21.0 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 23.5 22.8 19.3 1.0 60.2 58.2 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 22.6 22.6 20.0 0.7 57.3 56.5 21.0 22.1 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 22.7 22.6 20.6 1.6 68.6 63.7 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 24.0 23.4 20.0 1.2 62.7 59.9 21.1 22.4 23.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 21.2 21.2 20.6 0.5 56.1 54.7 19.8 20.8 21.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 22.3 21.7 19.0 1.1 60.6 58.9 19.6 20.9 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 21.7 21.7 21.2 0.6 56.6 55.5 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 17.9 18.0 16.6 0.7 57.5 56.5 16.1 17.4 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 22.0 22.3 21.0 1.0 60.9 58.7 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 22.0 22.0 20.6 0.6 56.6 55.3 20.5 21.6 22.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 22.0 21.9 21.2 0.5 55.3 54.7 20.5 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 23.0 22.4 20.1 0.9 59.4 58.0 20.5 21.7 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 22.3 21.9 20.0 1.2 63.7 60.6 19.7 20.9 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 22.2 22.3 19.2 0.8 58.1 56.5 20.3 21.7 22.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 21.7 22.2 20.7 1.1 62.5 59.8 20.1 21.3 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 23.0 22.9 20.2 1.7 68.7 63.7 19.7 21.3 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.2 17.3 18.1 0.9 58.8 57.6 15.4 16.7 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 21.7 21.7 21.1 0.7 57.6 56.2 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------