***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 21.5 22.6 22.3 -0.1 49.0 49.4 21.7 22.7 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 23.4 22.6 21.9 -0.5 41.5 43.3 22.1 23.0 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 23.5 22.7 22.3 -0.5 42.1 44.1 22.3 23.1 23.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 17.1 16.9 20.6 0.8 65.3 61.3 15.1 16.0 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 23.9 23.4 20.9 -0.1 48.5 49.2 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 22.9 23.1 19.6 0.5 60.2 58.5 21.6 22.6 23.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 23.0 22.2 21.9 -0.4 42.0 43.7 21.8 22.7 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.4 19.4 -0.2 47.1 48.2 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 23.6 23.1 21.4 -0.1 47.5 48.4 22.3 23.2 24.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 23.3 22.8 20.1 -0.1 48.5 49.2 21.9 22.9 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 23.7 23.0 21.0 -0.3 44.4 46.2 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 23.0 22.5 20.6 -0.1 47.5 48.7 21.7 22.6 23.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 22.5 23.6 20.6 -0.1 48.8 49.9 22.7 23.7 24.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 22.0 22.6 20.6 -0.7 38.3 41.0 22.2 23.2 24.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 24.3 24.0 22.2 0.7 64.0 60.7 22.5 23.3 24.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 23.1 24.3 20.9 0.1 51.8 52.0 23.2 24.2 25.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 22.6 21.7 21.5 -0.6 39.6 41.7 21.3 22.2 23.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 21.1 22.0 19.3 -0.2 46.1 47.2 21.3 22.2 23.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 21.7 22.3 22.1 -0.5 40.6 42.6 21.9 22.8 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 17.5 18.3 17.3 -0.2 46.0 47.0 17.6 18.5 19.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 22.2 23.0 22.0 -0.2 46.3 47.5 22.3 23.2 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 21.8 22.4 21.5 -0.5 40.7 42.6 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 21.9 22.3 22.0 -0.8 37.3 40.0 22.1 23.0 23.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 21.9 22.5 20.8 -0.5 42.0 44.1 22.0 23.0 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 21.8 23.0 21.1 0.2 53.0 52.4 21.9 22.8 23.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 22.2 23.2 20.0 -0.2 47.0 48.3 22.4 23.4 24.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 23.2 22.9 21.8 0.1 52.0 51.7 21.9 22.8 23.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 24.5 24.3 21.3 0.8 65.3 61.5 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 16.7 17.4 18.5 -0.3 43.8 45.3 16.9 17.8 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 23.2 22.4 22.1 -0.4 42.4 44.1 21.9 22.8 23.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------