***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 22.2 37.1 23.9 195.9 84.8 69.8 4.9 10.2 18.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 18.7 28.3 21.2 175.9 81.9 66.1 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.0 29.9 22.8 184.6 83.3 62.4 4.0 8.6 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.8 22.5 19.9 142.8 75.9 58.8 4.0 8.6 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.1 21.5 20.1 157.1 78.8 57.5 2.8 6.5 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.3 13.1 18.4 128.1 72.6 56.8 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 20.3 32.3 23.3 190.0 83.9 70.8 4.1 9.0 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.4 27.3 24.7 147.8 77.0 59.7 5.6 11.1 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.9 20.0 20.1 153.7 78.2 55.9 3.8 7.7 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.8 19.8 24.2 147.1 76.9 57.6 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.0 17.8 20.1 153.6 78.1 56.3 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.9 17.1 20.6 146.8 76.8 58.1 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.6 15.6 20.9 147.6 77.0 57.2 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.6 34.3 25.9 161.2 79.7 59.1 4.5 10.5 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.6 13.9 18.2 146.8 76.9 58.2 2.1 4.8 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.6 15.2 18.8 140.2 75.5 55.8 3.2 6.6 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 19.2 28.9 20.2 167.2 80.4 67.2 4.0 8.9 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 19.7 24.6 25.8 147.4 77.1 60.3 5.2 10.2 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.7 29.9 20.8 172.1 81.3 61.8 4.9 9.9 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 23.8 29.1 26.6 144.9 76.6 62.3 5.5 11.4 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.7 25.2 21.1 169.1 80.8 60.1 4.2 8.5 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 19.9 25.6 17.9 150.5 77.6 61.9 4.5 9.5 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 5.1 24.7 21.1 169.0 80.8 58.0 4.5 8.8 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.1 29.0 24.7 166.0 80.3 58.9 4.3 9.3 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 19.5 31.1 24.8 192.4 84.1 68.4 4.3 9.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 12.5 17.5 21.2 158.6 79.0 62.8 2.5 5.6 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 22.4 36.8 25.3 200.6 85.2 71.6 4.5 9.7 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.0 12.4 18.1 131.5 73.8 56.1 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 31.2 39.1 26.4 152.7 78.3 62.0 9.0 16.5 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 18.0 28.5 22.3 184.4 83.2 66.7 4.0 8.5 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------