***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 2.9 9.5 11.2 92.8 62.8 43.9 3.1 6.2 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.5 9.0 8.9 82.6 58.0 39.8 3.7 6.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.7 11.8 12.0 100.8 64.4 43.6 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 3.4 12.5 12.8 98.2 64.6 43.2 3.7 7.5 13.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.8 11.4 13.9 113.0 68.8 46.6 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 3.1 8.5 12.2 86.8 59.0 40.3 3.5 6.4 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 3.5 10.0 9.4 85.3 59.5 40.3 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.7 16.5 12.7 94.3 61.6 43.0 5.3 10.9 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.3 14.0 14.3 112.0 68.3 46.4 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.3 13.5 14.8 108.0 66.9 46.4 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.0 10.7 13.1 102.2 65.1 43.8 2.8 6.0 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.1 9.5 11.0 93.2 61.9 42.5 3.1 6.3 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.4 10.4 12.3 97.5 63.6 44.4 3.1 6.4 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.4 14.0 13.8 92.6 61.0 42.1 4.3 9.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.5 9.5 10.6 90.7 62.9 40.6 2.5 5.6 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.9 8.9 12.7 100.6 64.8 45.4 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 3.6 9.2 9.5 86.8 59.7 41.4 3.8 6.9 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.2 15.3 16.6 111.0 67.2 46.8 3.8 8.1 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.1 9.1 9.5 87.2 59.5 41.4 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.6 16.0 16.6 106.1 64.8 46.7 4.5 9.4 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 3.3 15.6 14.1 112.5 68.5 46.4 3.2 7.6 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 3.4 9.6 9.7 85.3 59.0 39.8 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.4 11.0 11.5 99.7 63.8 45.3 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.3 16.5 15.3 110.0 67.1 45.8 3.7 8.4 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 3.5 12.3 14.1 103.5 66.2 47.4 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.1 7.9 10.4 81.0 57.0 39.0 3.4 6.3 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.0 10.9 12.4 93.6 63.0 44.8 3.2 6.8 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.5 9.3 11.3 92.2 63.0 41.0 2.6 5.7 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.5 21.1 16.8 107.0 65.7 46.8 6.0 12.2 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.6 8.5 9.7 87.2 59.9 41.2 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------