***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.9 9.5 8.8 72.0 56.5 39.3 3.9 7.6 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 3.4 8.0 8.7 70.7 55.8 37.6 3.7 6.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.6 10.4 8.9 72.3 56.4 39.0 4.7 8.5 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 5.1 15.1 9.7 78.6 59.3 39.7 5.4 10.9 18.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.4 9.1 8.2 70.1 55.5 38.7 3.5 7.4 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.9 9.4 8.4 72.6 55.7 39.7 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.5 7.4 8.4 69.3 55.0 37.8 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.4 13.4 8.2 68.9 54.3 39.5 6.6 11.8 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.9 8.6 8.3 68.5 54.8 39.0 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.3 11.8 9.1 72.2 55.9 40.4 5.3 9.8 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.8 8.5 7.2 66.3 53.7 37.8 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.6 7.8 6.7 64.4 52.7 37.6 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.7 9.4 8.0 73.1 56.2 39.8 3.9 7.6 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.4 13.5 11.7 77.0 57.6 43.0 5.8 10.7 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 3.8 11.5 9.3 80.9 61.1 39.3 3.7 7.9 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.4 8.1 7.8 71.0 55.5 38.7 3.6 6.8 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.1 6.4 8.5 67.9 54.8 38.1 3.2 5.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.1 11.4 9.8 70.9 54.9 41.5 4.7 9.5 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.1 8.2 9.1 73.9 57.0 38.8 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.9 11.9 10.1 67.4 52.8 40.5 5.3 10.8 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.2 9.9 8.4 69.8 56.1 37.8 4.2 8.1 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.6 7.9 9.9 74.9 57.5 40.3 3.5 6.3 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.6 10.2 10.0 79.7 59.2 41.3 4.6 7.9 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.1 11.5 10.0 73.9 56.6 41.7 4.9 9.2 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 5.1 12.3 9.8 75.3 58.3 38.8 5.2 9.5 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.7 8.7 7.1 68.2 54.7 38.4 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 4.5 11.0 9.5 74.7 57.6 39.5 4.4 8.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.8 8.7 8.8 77.5 58.7 38.4 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.8 17.8 10.2 70.9 54.6 42.3 8.0 15.2 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.7 7.1 9.0 73.7 56.9 39.2 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------