***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 26.3 54.8 52.4 111.2 65.3 54.3 25.7 39.3 55.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 25.2 49.6 47.9 108.9 64.1 53.2 24.7 37.0 51.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 30.1 56.7 52.5 111.9 65.5 52.7 30.4 42.7 57.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 36.3 66.9 51.1 99.9 59.8 49.1 37.2 54.9 75.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 26.4 53.0 50.6 105.9 62.6 49.3 27.2 40.7 57.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 26.2 40.9 47.4 91.2 53.4 45.3 26.3 38.2 52.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 46.6 53.3 49.5 110.8 65.0 55.2 24.7 38.1 54.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 44.7 72.6 55.7 101.8 59.3 49.1 46.9 62.7 80.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 26.0 50.6 51.7 104.9 61.8 48.3 26.8 39.6 55.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 32.9 56.8 58.5 105.6 61.8 49.5 34.2 46.8 61.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 29.3 48.9 48.8 102.6 60.6 48.2 29.8 40.9 53.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 26.6 44.7 46.5 99.0 58.3 48.0 27.0 38.4 51.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 44.6 46.6 49.8 103.3 60.9 49.3 26.4 37.7 51.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 37.6 75.5 64.3 109.5 63.8 51.3 37.6 56.4 79.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 44.1 45.3 46.2 97.5 59.9 49.1 21.5 35.2 52.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 40.3 40.9 47.6 100.6 59.6 48.2 23.4 34.0 46.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 22.4 46.8 48.2 108.5 63.8 52.9 21.6 34.1 49.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 36.0 62.4 63.3 105.7 61.6 50.9 36.8 51.0 67.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 28.1 54.0 49.3 110.7 64.9 52.8 28.3 40.7 55.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 48.6 70.8 66.4 102.6 59.2 50.4 49.7 62.8 77.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 28.6 57.9 52.0 108.9 64.0 50.0 29.5 43.7 60.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 25.0 49.9 48.5 106.7 62.8 51.9 25.8 38.3 53.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 28.2 57.0 53.2 115.1 66.9 53.3 29.0 41.5 55.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 32.4 66.9 60.9 111.6 64.8 51.9 32.6 49.1 68.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 52.4 60.9 57.3 112.3 65.8 53.7 29.4 43.8 61.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 23.6 44.3 48.0 100.7 59.6 49.6 23.6 35.8 50.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 50.2 59.3 55.9 112.6 65.9 55.2 27.0 41.7 59.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 25.2 44.9 46.4 95.4 57.9 47.8 25.6 38.0 53.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 57.0 93.1 65.3 105.8 61.5 51.3 57.7 77.5 100.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 23.9 48.8 49.9 111.0 65.1 54.5 23.7 35.6 49.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------