***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 9999.0 13.3 15.1 1.8 80.1 72.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 12.1 12.6 14.8 1.6 78.1 72.0 9.9 10.9 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 14.2 14.9 14.9 1.8 81.1 74.2 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 9.8 10.6 12.9 1.7 82.1 75.0 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 11.4 12.2 12.7 1.6 80.3 73.6 9.0 10.1 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 10.4 11.4 11.2 1.9 85.4 78.5 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 12.2 12.7 14.8 1.6 78.7 72.2 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 6.3 6.9 11.0 1.6 78.8 72.6 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 12.2 12.8 13.1 1.7 79.8 73.2 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 11.9 12.4 11.5 1.5 77.5 71.4 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 11.6 12.3 12.3 1.8 82.8 75.6 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 10.4 11.1 11.9 1.7 81.7 74.9 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 11.1 11.8 11.3 1.6 81.0 74.2 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 12.5 13.0 13.3 1.8 81.2 74.6 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 12.6 13.5 13.8 2.0 87.3 79.4 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 12.3 13.2 12.0 1.8 84.0 76.6 10.3 11.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 12.3 12.5 14.1 1.3 73.3 68.4 10.4 11.2 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 11.0 11.5 10.9 1.5 77.4 71.4 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 12.3 12.8 14.8 1.7 79.4 73.2 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 7.1 7.5 9.4 1.4 75.7 70.3 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 11.9 12.5 14.2 1.7 79.3 72.7 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 11.5 11.6 14.2 1.4 75.0 69.8 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 12.0 12.8 14.7 1.9 82.4 75.6 9.6 10.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 11.8 12.5 13.0 1.7 81.3 74.5 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 12.5 13.3 13.7 1.8 81.6 74.1 10.2 11.3 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 11.2 11.8 11.5 1.6 80.5 74.2 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 12.8 13.7 14.4 1.7 80.3 73.0 10.0 11.3 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 10.8 11.7 13.2 1.8 84.5 77.0 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 10.0 10.6 10.4 1.5 78.4 71.9 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 12.6 13.2 15.0 1.7 79.7 73.2 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------