***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 11.7 12.9 0.9 65.0 60.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.4 12.7 0.9 65.2 59.6 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.6 12.7 1.0 67.7 62.0 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.3 10.8 1.0 66.4 61.9 7.0 8.2 9.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 10.5 10.4 10.7 1.0 66.5 61.9 8.2 9.3 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 9.5 9.6 9.3 1.2 69.9 64.7 7.6 8.6 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.4 12.6 0.8 64.2 58.8 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 5.3 5.2 9.2 1.0 66.6 62.3 3.4 4.3 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 11.3 11.2 11.2 1.0 66.6 62.0 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 10.9 10.8 9.7 0.9 65.2 61.2 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 10.7 10.8 10.4 1.1 69.2 64.1 8.8 9.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 9.6 9.6 10.0 1.1 68.3 63.5 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 10.2 10.1 9.5 1.0 66.0 61.8 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.5 11.2 1.0 66.9 62.0 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 11.5 11.6 11.6 1.2 70.5 65.0 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.6 10.1 1.2 69.0 64.2 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.9 11.2 12.2 0.7 62.6 57.9 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.7 9.1 0.8 63.4 60.0 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.8 11.4 12.7 1.0 67.0 61.0 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.8 7.7 0.7 62.0 58.9 4.7 5.3 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.9 12.1 1.0 66.0 61.3 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.3 12.2 0.8 64.6 59.5 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.3 11.1 12.6 1.1 69.7 63.4 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.8 11.0 1.0 67.2 62.4 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.9 11.5 11.4 0.9 64.7 60.4 9.4 10.5 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 9.7 10.0 9.7 0.8 63.9 60.0 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.8 12.1 0.8 63.6 59.3 9.4 10.8 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 10.0 10.1 11.2 1.1 68.6 63.8 7.9 8.9 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.9 8.5 0.7 62.6 59.5 7.1 8.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.7 12.8 0.9 65.8 60.1 9.7 10.7 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------