***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 10.7 11.7 0.5 58.7 56.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 7.9 10.0 11.4 0.4 57.4 55.3 8.2 9.5 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 10.4 12.2 11.5 0.6 59.9 57.3 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.4 7.4 9.3 0.4 57.5 56.4 5.7 6.9 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 7.0 9.2 9.4 0.4 57.8 56.6 7.3 8.6 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.3 7.6 0.4 57.7 56.5 6.3 7.7 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 8.3 10.0 11.3 0.4 57.0 55.2 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.3 4.3 8.0 0.5 58.4 57.2 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 8.5 10.4 9.9 0.5 58.6 57.0 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.9 9.7 8.5 0.4 57.6 56.3 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.4 9.0 0.5 59.5 58.0 7.4 8.7 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.1 8.6 0.4 58.0 57.0 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.7 8.4 7.8 0.2 52.9 53.7 6.9 8.2 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 8.5 10.2 10.0 0.4 58.2 56.0 8.7 9.7 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 8.3 10.4 10.0 0.6 60.8 58.9 8.5 9.6 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.1 8.5 0.4 57.1 56.4 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.9 10.9 0.2 53.7 53.1 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.6 8.4 7.9 0.3 55.8 54.7 6.8 8.0 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 8.2 10.1 11.4 0.5 58.6 56.2 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 2.9 4.7 6.4 0.2 53.4 53.7 3.2 4.5 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 7.8 9.8 10.8 0.5 58.5 56.6 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 7.5 9.1 10.9 0.3 55.9 54.9 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.8 11.3 0.6 60.5 57.5 8.0 9.1 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.8 9.4 9.8 0.5 58.8 56.5 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 8.2 10.4 10.1 0.5 58.1 56.4 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 7.1 8.4 8.1 0.1 50.9 51.5 7.2 8.4 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 8.3 10.7 10.9 0.5 58.0 56.1 8.6 10.1 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.4 8.6 9.6 0.5 59.0 57.7 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.3 7.9 7.4 0.4 56.8 55.4 6.5 7.5 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 8.5 10.5 11.6 0.5 58.7 56.2 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------