***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 12.8 14.1 1.5 84.5 76.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 11.6 12.3 13.7 1.4 83.2 75.4 9.7 10.6 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 13.6 14.3 13.9 1.5 85.5 78.0 12.1 12.8 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 9.1 9.7 11.6 1.2 80.6 73.4 7.6 8.3 9.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 10.5 11.0 11.5 1.1 78.7 72.2 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 9.5 9.9 9.8 1.2 80.0 73.3 8.1 8.7 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 11.6 12.2 13.8 1.4 83.7 75.8 10.1 10.8 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 5.4 5.8 10.0 1.2 79.9 73.1 4.0 4.7 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 11.5 11.9 12.0 1.2 79.7 73.1 10.1 10.7 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 11.1 11.5 10.5 1.1 78.1 71.4 9.7 10.3 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 10.7 11.2 11.2 1.2 81.4 74.8 9.2 9.9 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 9.5 9.9 10.7 1.2 80.6 74.2 8.1 8.7 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 10.1 10.2 9.9 0.8 71.6 66.4 8.7 9.3 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 11.7 12.2 12.2 1.3 83.0 75.1 10.3 10.9 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 11.6 12.3 12.5 1.4 84.7 77.2 10.3 10.9 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 11.5 11.9 10.7 1.1 78.1 72.0 10.1 10.7 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 11.6 12.0 13.2 1.1 79.9 72.4 10.3 10.9 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 10.0 10.3 9.8 1.0 75.8 69.2 8.5 9.2 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 11.6 12.2 13.8 1.5 85.3 77.6 10.0 10.7 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 6.2 6.4 8.3 0.9 74.8 68.2 4.8 5.5 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 11.1 11.6 13.1 1.2 80.8 73.8 9.6 10.3 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 10.7 11.3 13.4 1.3 83.6 75.7 9.3 9.9 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 11.2 12.2 13.8 1.7 88.6 81.0 9.5 10.2 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 11.0 11.5 11.9 1.3 82.9 75.4 9.7 10.3 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 11.8 12.4 12.6 1.3 82.3 74.8 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 10.1 10.2 10.0 0.7 69.1 64.2 9.0 9.5 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 12.1 12.9 13.3 1.4 82.4 74.7 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 9.9 10.5 11.9 1.2 81.4 74.3 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 9.2 9.6 9.3 1.0 77.2 70.0 7.7 8.4 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 11.9 12.6 14.0 1.5 84.5 76.7 10.2 11.0 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------