***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 9999.0 29.1 28.4 4.7 94.5 90.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 27.0 30.3 28.7 5.1 95.7 91.6 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 27.1 30.0 28.5 4.9 94.8 90.9 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 20.3 22.4 25.4 3.8 89.5 86.3 16.0 17.7 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 27.6 30.1 26.5 4.3 91.5 88.0 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 26.6 28.4 23.5 3.5 87.7 84.9 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 26.6 29.9 28.5 5.0 95.5 91.4 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 15.9 18.1 24.6 4.3 91.3 87.8 12.2 13.7 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 27.2 30.0 27.6 4.6 93.6 89.9 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 26.9 29.4 25.8 4.6 92.8 89.2 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 27.3 29.5 26.2 4.3 91.4 88.0 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 26.6 29.0 25.5 4.2 90.9 87.6 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 27.7 30.2 25.7 4.4 91.8 88.7 23.6 25.2 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 27.1 30.6 27.7 5.4 96.6 92.5 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 27.6 29.5 26.8 3.7 89.7 86.9 23.8 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 28.3 30.7 25.9 4.2 91.1 88.0 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 26.0 29.6 28.4 5.3 96.8 92.8 22.1 23.6 24.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 26.0 28.7 25.2 4.8 94.1 90.0 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 26.8 30.2 28.9 5.3 96.2 92.3 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 22.1 24.4 22.8 4.3 91.9 87.9 18.3 19.8 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 27.2 29.7 28.0 4.4 92.4 88.5 23.5 25.0 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 26.7 30.6 28.6 5.4 97.4 93.5 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 3 97 100 26.9 30.5 29.0 5.5 97.1 93.3 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 26.8 29.8 27.1 5.0 95.3 91.2 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 27.0 29.5 26.7 4.2 92.3 88.5 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 27.4 29.3 24.8 3.9 89.4 86.3 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 27.0 29.7 27.5 4.5 93.7 89.8 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 27.6 29.3 25.9 3.6 88.5 85.6 23.7 25.2 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 21.4 24.1 24.4 4.8 94.1 89.8 17.7 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 26.8 29.9 28.7 5.0 95.1 91.2 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------