***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 9999.0 27.2 25.8 3.3 87.7 79.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 25.4 27.0 25.5 3.1 85.7 76.3 21.6 23.2 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 25.5 27.3 25.8 3.3 87.3 78.4 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 18.6 20.4 24.3 3.2 87.5 79.5 14.7 16.3 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 26.1 27.9 24.3 3.2 86.9 79.0 22.2 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 25.3 27.3 22.5 3.2 88.1 80.1 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 25.0 26.5 25.4 3.0 85.5 76.4 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 15.0 16.5 22.7 3.1 85.9 77.7 11.4 12.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 25.8 27.7 24.7 3.3 87.0 78.9 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 25.5 27.3 23.4 3.2 86.4 78.2 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 25.8 27.7 24.0 3.3 88.0 79.8 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 25.2 27.1 23.8 3.2 86.9 78.8 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 26.4 28.2 23.4 3.2 87.1 79.2 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 25.8 27.6 24.2 3.1 85.3 75.8 21.5 23.3 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 25.6 27.7 24.8 3.4 90.0 81.7 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 26.8 28.7 23.8 3.3 87.9 79.8 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 24.4 25.9 25.0 2.9 84.2 74.5 20.8 22.4 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 24.8 26.3 22.6 3.1 85.1 76.6 20.8 22.4 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 25.2 26.9 25.7 3.2 86.3 76.8 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 21.0 22.2 20.3 2.8 82.9 74.7 17.2 18.8 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 25.6 27.2 25.3 3.2 86.6 78.5 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 25.3 26.9 24.9 2.8 83.9 73.9 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 25.3 27.2 25.6 3.3 86.8 77.2 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 25.5 27.2 24.2 3.2 86.3 77.3 21.5 23.1 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 25.2 26.9 24.4 3.3 88.0 79.8 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 26.2 27.7 23.1 2.9 84.3 77.2 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 25.1 26.8 25.0 3.3 87.5 79.1 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 26.0 27.9 24.6 3.2 88.0 79.9 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 20.4 21.9 21.6 3.0 84.0 75.5 16.4 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 25.2 26.9 25.7 3.2 86.5 77.5 21.4 23.0 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------