***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 24.2 22.8 1.6 70.9 62.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 20.8 24.1 22.5 1.4 69.7 60.8 21.1 22.5 23.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 24.4 24.4 22.8 1.6 70.7 62.3 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 17.3 17.1 21.3 1.4 68.0 61.4 13.9 15.5 16.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 24.8 24.6 21.4 1.4 67.7 61.0 21.4 22.9 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 23.7 23.5 19.8 1.4 66.8 60.9 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 23.6 23.6 22.3 1.4 69.2 60.5 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 13.5 13.3 20.0 1.2 66.1 59.9 10.4 11.9 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 24.4 24.2 21.7 1.4 68.4 61.3 21.0 22.6 24.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 24.1 23.9 20.6 1.3 67.0 60.4 20.6 22.2 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 24.5 24.4 21.2 1.4 68.3 61.4 21.1 22.7 24.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 23.9 23.6 21.0 1.3 66.7 60.4 20.5 22.0 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 24.8 24.5 20.6 1.4 66.7 60.4 21.4 22.9 24.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 20.7 24.3 21.4 1.4 68.8 60.6 21.0 22.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 24.3 24.3 21.8 1.6 70.4 63.3 21.4 22.7 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 25.3 25.1 21.0 1.4 67.7 61.2 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 23.3 23.2 22.0 1.3 68.6 59.6 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 19.7 23.0 19.9 1.2 66.0 59.4 20.0 21.5 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 20.5 23.9 22.7 1.5 70.5 61.5 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 15.7 18.9 17.9 1.1 64.7 58.8 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 24.4 24.3 22.3 1.4 68.8 61.5 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 24.1 24.1 22.2 1.4 69.6 60.3 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 24.1 24.2 22.7 1.6 71.3 62.2 20.9 22.4 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 24.2 24.1 21.4 1.4 68.5 60.8 20.8 22.3 23.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 23.8 23.8 21.4 1.5 70.2 62.3 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 24.4 24.0 20.5 1.2 64.8 59.2 21.2 22.7 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 23.8 23.8 21.9 1.5 70.3 62.0 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 24.7 24.5 21.6 1.4 67.7 61.5 21.3 22.9 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 14.9 18.3 18.9 1.1 65.0 58.8 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 23.8 23.9 22.7 1.5 70.4 61.6 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------