***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 22.3 21.4 1.3 67.3 61.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 22.7 22.6 21.3 1.4 68.6 62.6 20.5 21.5 22.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 22.9 22.7 21.5 1.3 67.0 62.1 20.4 21.5 22.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 16.1 15.5 19.7 1.0 63.5 60.1 12.7 14.3 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 23.0 22.5 19.9 1.0 63.3 60.2 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 22.3 21.5 18.2 0.8 60.5 58.8 19.3 20.7 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 22.3 22.2 21.1 1.3 68.0 61.9 20.1 21.1 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 12.8 12.1 18.5 0.8 60.3 58.4 10.1 11.3 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 23.0 22.6 20.3 1.1 63.9 60.4 20.3 21.5 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 22.6 22.0 19.2 0.9 62.1 59.4 19.9 21.2 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 23.2 22.6 19.7 1.0 63.6 60.6 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 22.6 21.9 19.4 0.9 61.0 58.9 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 23.5 22.8 19.0 0.8 60.3 58.6 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 23.5 23.2 20.2 1.3 66.0 61.6 20.9 22.1 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 22.6 22.1 20.0 1.1 65.2 61.0 19.6 20.9 22.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 24.0 23.3 19.4 1.0 62.4 59.9 21.1 22.4 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 22.0 21.9 20.8 1.4 69.2 62.7 19.8 20.8 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 22.2 21.6 18.5 0.9 61.1 58.4 19.6 20.8 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 22.6 22.5 21.5 1.4 68.9 63.1 20.2 21.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 18.0 18.0 16.3 0.6 57.7 56.2 16.3 17.5 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 22.8 22.5 21.0 1.1 64.7 60.8 20.3 21.4 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 22.9 22.9 21.0 1.5 70.6 63.9 20.5 21.6 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 22.9 22.8 21.5 1.5 68.8 63.3 20.6 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 23.1 22.7 20.1 1.1 64.4 60.6 20.5 21.7 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 22.3 22.0 19.9 1.2 65.6 60.9 19.7 20.9 22.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 22.1 22.2 18.7 0.6 57.9 57.1 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 22.6 22.4 20.5 1.2 66.3 61.1 20.1 21.3 22.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 23.0 22.3 19.9 1.0 63.2 60.2 19.6 21.1 22.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 15.3 17.4 17.6 0.8 59.6 57.4 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 22.5 22.3 21.4 1.4 68.1 62.4 20.2 21.2 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------