***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 9999.0 25.5 24.6 2.7 93.0 83.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 24.2 25.9 24.5 2.7 93.1 83.0 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 24.3 26.0 24.6 2.7 93.3 83.2 22.2 23.0 23.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 17.3 18.7 22.7 2.4 89.6 80.2 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 24.7 26.1 23.0 2.5 90.5 80.8 22.5 23.4 24.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 23.8 24.9 21.0 2.2 88.0 78.8 21.5 22.5 23.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 23.9 25.5 24.3 2.7 92.7 82.7 21.7 22.5 23.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 13.7 14.9 21.4 2.3 89.5 79.5 11.6 12.5 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 24.4 26.0 23.6 2.6 92.0 81.9 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 24.2 25.7 22.3 2.5 91.1 80.8 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 24.5 25.9 22.8 2.5 90.8 81.1 22.3 23.2 24.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 23.9 25.3 22.4 2.4 89.4 79.8 21.6 22.6 23.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 24.9 26.2 22.2 2.5 89.1 80.0 22.6 23.6 24.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 24.6 26.7 23.4 2.8 94.1 82.8 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 24.4 25.7 23.4 2.4 90.9 81.7 22.3 23.1 23.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 25.3 26.7 22.6 2.5 89.9 80.6 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 23.4 25.1 24.1 2.7 93.4 82.8 21.2 22.1 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 23.4 24.9 21.6 2.5 91.4 80.6 21.2 22.1 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 24.0 25.8 24.7 2.9 93.8 83.5 21.8 22.7 23.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 19.6 20.8 19.3 2.2 88.6 78.3 17.5 18.4 19.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 24.4 25.8 24.1 2.5 91.4 81.5 22.2 23.1 23.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 24.2 26.2 24.2 2.8 94.3 83.3 21.9 22.8 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 24.2 26.2 24.7 3.0 94.7 84.2 22.0 22.9 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 24.3 26.1 23.2 2.7 93.2 82.3 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 23.9 25.4 23.1 2.6 91.9 82.1 21.8 22.7 23.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 24.6 25.7 21.8 2.1 86.1 77.3 22.3 23.3 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 24.0 25.6 23.7 2.6 92.4 82.6 21.9 22.7 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 24.6 25.8 23.0 2.3 89.0 79.8 22.3 23.3 24.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 19.0 20.4 20.6 2.4 90.8 80.0 16.8 17.7 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 24.0 25.7 24.7 2.8 93.0 83.1 21.8 22.7 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------