***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 9999.0 7.1 3.7 30.9 35.4 19.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 3.1 4.5 3.3 27.5 32.7 19.8 4.5 8.7 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 2.3 3.8 3.9 32.2 36.8 22.7 3.2 7.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 2.4 4.7 4.1 31.5 36.2 17.6 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 85 15 0 100 1.8 3.9 4.5 34.1 36.6 20.6 3.3 7.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 86 14 0 100 1.3 2.7 4.9 33.9 35.9 17.3 2.4 5.0 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 2.5 3.6 3.2 27.6 31.7 18.4 3.8 8.0 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 3.5 6.1 5.3 34.4 36.0 21.2 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 2.2 3.6 4.3 31.2 34.2 19.9 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 3.1 5.0 5.2 33.2 35.3 21.5 4.5 8.5 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 1.8 3.8 4.7 36.1 38.3 19.8 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 2.0 4.1 4.7 36.5 38.7 21.3 3.2 6.4 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 1.6 3.6 4.9 37.1 37.0 19.1 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 3.1 5.3 5.1 33.7 36.2 22.9 4.5 10.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 87 13 0 100 1.2 2.3 3.5 26.1 33.9 15.0 2.3 4.9 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 2.0 4.2 4.9 38.2 38.2 19.0 3.4 6.4 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 2.6 3.9 3.0 25.6 30.2 18.8 4.6 9.4 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 3.9 5.8 5.7 33.6 33.9 21.7 5.6 10.6 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 3.0 4.6 3.6 29.6 34.7 21.7 4.3 8.5 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 5.3 7.6 6.2 34.0 33.6 21.1 7.3 13.1 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 2.7 4.6 3.8 30.1 34.9 18.6 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 2.7 4.0 3.9 30.7 33.2 22.2 3.9 8.3 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 2.5 4.2 4.1 32.8 36.8 22.6 3.5 7.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 2.5 4.3 5.0 33.6 36.0 22.5 3.7 8.3 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 2.3 4.4 3.9 30.5 33.5 17.0 4.2 9.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 1.3 3.2 5.0 40.5 39.5 21.5 2.2 5.1 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 86 14 0 100 2.2 3.9 3.7 29.0 32.5 16.9 4.0 8.8 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 1.3 2.8 4.1 31.3 36.2 17.0 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 5.7 8.2 6.1 34.5 33.8 22.1 7.9 14.7 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 3.3 4.9 3.6 29.8 34.6 21.4 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------