***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 8.5 9.2 92.5 61.6 38.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.3 10.4 9.8 93.0 61.1 39.6 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.7 11.7 9.4 94.3 62.0 39.4 4.2 7.9 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.8 12.3 9.3 88.6 61.9 40.4 3.9 8.1 14.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 2.5 8.6 9.1 89.0 61.1 40.8 2.6 5.6 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.4 8.8 12.7 83.4 60.2 42.1 3.4 6.4 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 3.7 10.9 9.7 90.5 60.5 39.5 4.1 7.8 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.2 12.8 9.3 79.0 56.9 42.0 4.7 10.0 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 3.0 10.5 9.4 88.3 61.2 40.5 3.2 6.8 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.9 9.9 10.1 83.7 58.5 41.9 3.8 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.7 8.8 8.2 85.7 60.5 41.3 2.7 5.8 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.1 8.0 7.6 82.9 59.1 41.0 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.4 9.7 10.1 86.7 61.1 42.7 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 3.8 13.4 12.2 89.2 59.7 41.2 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.7 9.3 8.8 85.3 61.4 37.7 2.6 5.9 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.6 7.9 9.0 85.9 61.1 41.8 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.8 10.8 10.3 97.4 63.5 42.1 4.0 7.3 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 3.5 10.2 12.1 86.6 58.3 42.5 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 3.0 10.2 9.5 90.8 60.3 39.3 3.4 7.1 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.5 10.9 13.5 80.1 56.0 43.9 4.1 8.6 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 3.2 12.9 8.9 93.2 63.1 39.6 3.4 7.8 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.1 10.9 10.9 99.4 63.5 43.2 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 2.9 9.4 9.3 83.8 57.7 38.3 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 3.6 13.0 11.3 90.1 59.8 40.5 3.7 8.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 3.1 10.6 10.3 89.6 61.1 39.5 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.6 9.7 8.9 89.4 62.0 41.9 3.6 6.8 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 3.2 10.2 10.3 88.9 60.3 38.6 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.7 9.2 8.9 86.0 61.5 39.8 2.6 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 5.8 15.8 13.0 86.5 58.5 43.7 5.5 11.6 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 2.3 8.3 9.6 91.3 60.3 39.0 2.4 5.5 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------