***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 7.4 7.9 93.8 63.1 45.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.5 7.8 8.3 79.5 57.8 42.1 3.4 6.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.5 11.0 8.2 86.2 60.8 43.6 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.1 18.2 8.1 95.1 63.9 45.8 4.6 10.5 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.9 13.6 8.6 95.6 64.0 45.1 3.9 8.2 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.4 13.1 10.3 88.2 61.6 47.2 4.4 8.9 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.0 7.6 8.3 80.8 58.0 42.9 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 6.2 19.0 10.3 99.0 64.1 44.8 6.7 12.3 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 3.7 13.2 9.4 97.1 65.0 45.5 3.9 7.8 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 5.0 15.8 10.3 94.9 63.3 45.0 5.4 10.2 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 4.2 13.2 7.9 92.4 62.9 43.5 4.5 8.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.7 12.6 8.1 98.5 64.7 44.2 3.9 7.7 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.7 12.6 8.7 91.8 62.8 46.8 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.0 14.1 11.1 85.2 59.7 44.3 5.0 10.1 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.4 13.5 7.4 92.5 63.7 44.5 3.6 8.1 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.8 11.1 7.9 91.7 63.0 45.9 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.3 8.4 76.8 57.0 41.9 2.8 5.1 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 4.3 14.8 11.8 92.4 61.8 45.4 4.3 9.5 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.1 7.9 8.4 80.2 58.8 42.4 2.9 5.9 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 6.0 17.9 14.7 99.5 63.7 46.3 6.0 11.4 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 3.6 13.1 8.3 93.3 63.4 44.3 3.8 8.1 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.2 6.9 8.8 74.9 56.6 41.6 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.7 9.6 8.8 81.0 59.4 42.9 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.2 13.7 10.2 87.7 61.0 44.8 4.6 9.2 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 4.3 13.7 8.8 90.2 61.8 45.7 4.5 9.2 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.3 11.4 7.2 86.9 60.9 44.6 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.7 14.0 8.7 90.9 61.9 45.9 4.6 9.2 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.0 13.1 7.7 94.9 64.2 45.7 3.4 7.5 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 7.2 23.3 13.0 94.4 62.5 46.0 7.5 15.2 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.0 7.8 8.1 83.3 59.4 43.0 2.8 5.5 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------