***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 9.7 7.0 76.3 58.0 41.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 2.2 6.0 7.7 69.5 55.3 41.6 2.1 4.8 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.1 8.4 7.6 83.9 60.0 42.4 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 5.6 15.5 8.2 84.5 60.4 39.9 6.0 11.3 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 3.5 9.9 8.0 82.8 59.3 39.6 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.6 12.5 12.0 113.4 68.7 41.5 2.7 6.0 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.3 6.3 7.7 68.6 54.7 40.6 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 4.7 12.3 9.1 82.5 57.7 39.5 5.0 9.6 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 3.1 8.3 7.8 81.5 58.4 39.4 3.3 6.4 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 3.7 9.2 8.9 80.8 57.1 39.1 4.1 7.4 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 3.5 9.7 7.6 82.6 59.5 38.9 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.8 9.5 7.6 88.0 60.6 39.9 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 2.7 11.5 9.9 107.6 66.8 41.9 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 4.6 11.2 9.7 75.9 55.6 40.6 4.9 9.4 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 3.5 10.9 7.7 83.1 60.9 38.5 4.0 7.7 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 2.2 9.0 8.6 94.6 63.1 40.0 2.5 5.4 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.4 5.4 7.7 64.0 52.4 38.7 2.3 4.9 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.4 9.5 10.5 79.2 55.4 39.6 4.7 8.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.8 7.1 7.6 71.7 56.0 41.4 2.7 5.8 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.8 11.6 14.1 85.1 57.6 41.3 4.7 9.1 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 3.0 8.1 7.2 81.5 58.6 39.7 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.7 6.1 7.8 66.3 52.2 38.1 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.0 8.3 7.7 74.8 56.7 40.3 3.1 6.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 3.7 9.0 9.3 81.8 57.3 40.5 4.1 7.2 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.9 8.5 7.8 79.1 58.7 41.8 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 2.5 12.1 9.0 108.2 67.2 41.0 2.9 6.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 2.0 5.7 7.7 78.0 58.6 42.5 2.1 4.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 3.8 12.3 8.3 90.8 62.6 39.2 4.3 8.2 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 5.8 12.6 11.6 78.1 54.7 39.9 6.1 10.9 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.2 6.4 7.6 74.2 57.1 42.5 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------