***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 35.0 27.7 70.4 41.2 35.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 22.7 27.1 29.0 66.1 37.5 34.1 24.1 36.0 50.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 26.7 34.3 29.1 71.5 42.6 37.3 27.4 40.0 55.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 28.1 44.6 29.6 71.1 43.7 35.9 33.8 51.9 74.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 22.0 33.2 30.3 71.7 42.3 36.1 26.1 39.7 56.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 21.5 32.0 39.9 76.7 44.2 37.1 24.2 36.7 51.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 23.4 26.6 28.8 66.1 36.9 33.6 23.9 36.9 52.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 37.3 47.3 34.0 69.9 39.2 35.2 41.2 58.8 78.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 22.8 32.4 30.9 70.6 40.9 36.0 26.9 39.5 54.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 28.4 36.4 34.6 69.5 38.4 35.0 32.5 45.5 60.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 23.7 33.4 28.4 70.3 41.9 35.6 27.3 39.3 53.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 21.3 31.1 28.1 72.1 43.4 36.8 23.9 36.0 50.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 22.1 33.3 33.5 77.0 45.3 38.3 24.8 37.0 51.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 36.1 43.6 38.1 69.7 39.4 36.1 37.2 55.3 77.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 19.0 30.1 27.4 66.7 42.4 33.8 23.0 36.5 53.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 19.8 29.3 30.4 74.0 43.9 36.4 22.3 33.3 46.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 22.2 26.2 29.5 64.9 37.0 34.0 23.8 35.5 49.9 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 26.8 34.6 40.1 70.3 35.9 34.3 32.0 48.0 67.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 25.2 30.3 29.1 66.6 38.5 34.7 26.7 38.4 52.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 35.8 44.1 48.4 73.0 36.6 35.0 40.7 57.6 77.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 25.1 35.9 28.2 70.6 42.7 36.8 28.0 42.5 59.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 21.7 26.4 31.4 66.5 37.2 33.6 23.6 36.1 51.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 26.1 31.7 29.9 66.8 38.7 35.1 28.0 39.9 54.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 30.1 38.4 35.8 71.0 38.9 36.0 33.0 48.8 68.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 28.8 36.5 30.7 70.3 40.2 34.6 31.1 44.8 61.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 21.8 32.4 30.1 77.4 46.2 38.3 22.7 35.4 50.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 26.1 31.7 30.3 69.4 39.3 34.3 26.8 41.0 58.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 21.5 33.2 29.1 71.2 44.1 35.3 25.3 37.8 52.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 41.8 52.8 43.7 71.2 35.8 34.5 49.5 71.5 97.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 21.3 26.1 28.9 67.9 38.7 34.7 22.4 33.9 47.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------