***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 12.7 12.8 15.6 1.2 69.8 68.9 10.9 11.8 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 12.8 13.0 15.5 1.4 73.5 72.5 10.4 11.5 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 15.1 15.3 16.0 1.5 75.9 74.6 12.8 13.8 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 11.4 12.2 13.7 1.8 83.5 81.5 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 11.6 11.7 13.9 1.1 71.4 70.3 9.3 10.4 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 10.8 11.0 11.2 1.3 76.1 74.4 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 13.0 13.1 15.7 1.5 74.8 73.9 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 7.1 7.3 11.4 1.4 76.0 74.8 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 12.9 12.9 13.9 1.3 73.3 72.3 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 12.7 12.9 12.4 1.5 77.5 76.3 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 12.1 12.3 13.5 1.4 76.1 75.0 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 10.6 10.7 12.4 1.3 74.4 73.2 8.3 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 11.1 11.0 11.9 0.9 67.2 66.5 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 13.0 13.1 13.5 1.2 72.9 71.6 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 13.6 14.6 15.7 2.2 88.6 87.1 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 12.8 12.9 12.7 1.1 71.8 70.7 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 13.3 13.5 15.3 1.5 75.9 74.9 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 11.3 11.6 11.7 1.3 76.2 74.9 8.8 9.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 12.9 13.0 15.5 1.4 73.8 72.8 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 7.2 7.3 9.8 1.0 71.1 69.8 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 12.4 12.5 15.0 1.2 72.4 71.4 10.2 11.2 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 12.2 12.2 15.3 1.2 71.1 70.2 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 12.4 12.5 15.5 1.4 75.9 74.7 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 12.7 13.0 13.8 1.5 78.0 76.6 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 11.8 12.3 14.6 0.8 64.2 63.5 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 11.2 11.2 11.1 0.8 65.8 65.1 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 47 53 100 12.9 12.9 15.0 1.0 66.4 65.6 10.8 11.9 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 11.6 12.3 14.1 2.0 84.4 82.7 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 10.5 10.6 10.7 1.1 71.7 70.5 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 13.2 13.4 15.8 1.4 73.9 72.9 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------