***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.1 13.9 0.1 52.5 52.2 9.9 10.9 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.3 10.9 13.5 0.1 50.9 50.7 9.9 10.9 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.3 14.1 0.3 54.7 53.9 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.4 8.7 11.4 0.1 52.5 52.6 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 8.8 10.1 11.7 0.0 50.6 51.6 9.0 10.1 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.4 9.5 0.2 54.3 53.9 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 10.1 11.1 13.6 0.0 50.5 50.0 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.4 9.5 0.2 54.2 54.0 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.2 11.9 0.1 52.9 53.3 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.0 10.4 0.2 53.8 53.9 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.7 11.3 0.3 55.5 54.8 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.6 10.4 0.3 55.5 55.0 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.1 10.1 0.2 53.7 53.2 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 10.4 11.6 11.7 0.2 53.8 53.5 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.2 13.3 0.8 65.3 61.4 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.1 11.4 10.8 0.3 55.0 54.2 10.3 11.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.2 13.1 -0.1 48.3 48.6 10.4 11.2 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.2 9.9 9.7 0.2 53.1 53.6 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.3 13.7 0.2 53.2 52.6 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.8 6.0 7.9 0.0 50.8 51.8 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.8 13.1 0.1 51.5 51.8 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.3 13.3 0.0 49.4 49.8 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 9.5 11.0 13.8 0.4 56.8 55.2 9.6 10.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.0 11.7 0.2 54.6 54.2 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.2 12.8 0.0 49.4 50.0 10.2 11.3 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.4 9.8 0.3 55.8 55.0 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.3 13.3 0.0 50.3 50.4 10.0 11.3 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.0 11.8 0.3 57.0 55.5 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.6 9.0 9.1 0.2 53.3 53.7 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.5 13.9 0.2 52.9 52.1 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------