***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 10.8 10.3 12.7 0.0 49.8 50.2 9.5 10.4 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.6 12.4 0.1 52.4 52.3 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 11.4 12.6 12.7 0.0 50.1 50.5 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.8 8.0 9.8 -0.1 47.4 49.3 7.0 8.2 9.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 8.0 9.0 9.8 -0.3 45.0 47.7 8.2 9.3 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.5 8.3 -0.1 48.4 50.0 7.6 8.6 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 9.5 10.8 12.6 0.2 53.9 53.1 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.2 8.1 -0.1 47.3 49.5 3.4 4.3 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.1 10.1 -0.2 45.6 48.1 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.0 8.8 -0.2 46.7 49.0 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.6 9.3 -0.1 47.2 49.1 8.8 9.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.5 8.6 -0.1 47.7 49.6 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.1 8.1 -0.2 46.2 48.8 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.0 10.7 10.4 0.0 49.8 50.6 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 9.4 10.7 11.1 0.2 53.0 53.0 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.4 8.8 -0.1 47.3 49.2 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.7 12.2 0.2 52.9 52.9 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.0 8.0 -0.1 48.0 50.1 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.5 12.4 0.1 52.1 52.0 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.2 6.3 -0.2 46.9 49.9 4.7 5.3 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.7 11.5 -0.3 45.4 47.6 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.6 12.1 0.1 51.3 51.7 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.1 12.3 0.2 52.9 52.4 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.0 10.0 0.0 49.5 50.5 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 9.2 10.3 11.1 -0.2 46.1 48.2 9.4 10.5 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.3 8.1 -0.1 47.9 50.5 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 9.2 10.7 12.0 0.0 49.6 50.2 9.4 10.8 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 7.7 8.9 10.0 0.0 49.1 50.5 7.9 8.9 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.5 7.9 7.5 -0.2 47.0 49.7 7.1 8.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 9.5 10.9 12.7 0.2 52.7 52.2 9.7 10.7 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------