***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 7.9 9.4 11.8 0.1 51.1 51.2 8.1 9.3 10.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.5 11.3 0.0 50.7 50.5 8.2 9.5 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 10.4 11.7 11.7 0.1 51.0 50.7 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.3 7.0 8.9 0.1 51.3 52.0 5.7 6.9 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.9 8.5 8.9 -0.1 48.6 49.9 7.3 8.6 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.6 7.3 -0.1 49.1 50.2 6.3 7.7 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.7 11.5 0.1 51.5 51.0 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 2.5 3.6 7.0 -0.2 46.7 48.4 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 8.4 9.7 9.2 -0.1 47.8 49.1 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.8 9.0 7.7 -0.2 46.5 48.1 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 7.1 8.6 8.2 -0.1 48.1 49.3 7.4 8.7 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.2 7.5 7.5 -0.1 48.0 49.1 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 6.5 7.9 7.2 -0.2 47.0 48.5 6.9 8.2 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 8.4 9.6 9.2 -0.1 48.2 48.4 8.7 9.7 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 8.3 10.0 10.1 0.3 54.9 54.4 8.5 9.6 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 8.1 9.5 7.8 -0.1 48.5 49.6 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.6 11.0 0.0 49.3 49.4 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.6 7.7 6.9 -0.2 46.0 47.7 6.8 8.0 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.6 11.3 0.0 50.6 50.2 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.0 4.0 5.2 -0.4 44.2 46.9 3.2 4.5 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.8 9.2 10.7 -0.1 49.0 49.8 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 7.5 8.7 10.9 -0.1 48.9 48.9 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.8 9.2 11.2 0.0 50.8 50.1 8.0 9.1 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 7.7 8.9 8.9 -0.1 48.4 48.9 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 8.3 9.7 10.3 -0.1 49.1 50.4 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 7.0 8.4 7.1 0.0 50.0 50.6 7.2 8.4 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 8.3 10.1 11.1 0.0 50.2 50.8 8.6 10.1 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 6.3 8.1 9.0 0.1 52.3 52.6 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.3 7.2 6.4 -0.3 44.5 46.9 6.5 7.5 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.0 11.6 0.1 51.7 51.3 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------