***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 26.8 27.8 27.3 2.6 82.5 80.8 22.9 24.4 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 27.0 28.0 27.8 2.9 84.5 82.9 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 26.8 27.7 27.5 2.7 82.0 80.2 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 20.0 21.0 24.1 2.4 81.0 78.8 16.0 17.7 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 27.0 27.0 24.5 1.4 69.4 68.3 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 25.7 25.6 21.9 1.2 66.2 64.8 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 26.5 27.6 27.7 2.9 84.7 83.1 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 14.1 14.9 21.9 1.0 64.4 63.0 12.2 13.7 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 26.6 26.6 25.3 1.5 70.0 68.7 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 26.0 25.9 23.2 1.2 65.9 64.8 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 26.4 26.3 24.5 1.2 65.8 64.8 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 24.6 25.5 23.0 1.1 64.6 63.3 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 25.5 26.2 23.7 0.8 60.6 60.0 23.6 25.2 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 26.5 27.1 25.7 2.2 77.4 75.5 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 27.7 29.5 27.4 3.4 90.0 87.7 23.8 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 27.4 27.4 24.1 1.3 67.8 66.6 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 25.9 26.7 27.1 2.7 83.1 81.7 22.1 23.6 24.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 25.3 25.2 22.5 1.4 68.8 67.3 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 26.7 27.6 27.7 2.8 83.8 82.2 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 21.3 21.1 20.2 1.2 66.0 64.3 18.3 19.8 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 26.8 27.0 26.4 1.7 73.1 71.7 23.5 25.0 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 26.4 26.7 26.6 2.1 77.3 76.2 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 26.7 27.8 27.8 3.0 85.2 83.2 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 26.2 26.6 25.3 2.0 75.1 73.4 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 26.7 27.2 25.6 2.0 76.7 75.3 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 26.5 26.2 22.3 1.0 63.8 62.8 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 26.7 27.5 26.5 2.4 81.0 79.5 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 27.3 28.2 25.1 2.5 81.1 78.9 23.7 25.2 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 20.6 20.5 21.7 1.3 67.6 66.1 17.7 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 26.7 27.8 27.8 2.9 84.4 82.7 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------