***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 20.8 22.0 23.4 -0.6 43.2 44.8 21.1 22.6 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 21.2 22.9 23.7 -0.3 46.7 47.0 21.6 23.2 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 21.3 22.8 23.7 -0.5 44.6 46.1 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 14.5 15.6 20.7 -0.7 41.9 44.6 14.7 16.3 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 21.8 22.4 21.1 -1.3 35.2 39.2 22.2 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 21.2 21.8 19.1 -1.1 36.3 40.8 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 20.8 22.5 23.7 -0.3 46.6 47.0 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 11.0 11.5 19.1 -1.4 34.1 38.7 11.4 12.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 21.4 22.0 21.6 -1.3 34.6 38.5 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 21.1 21.7 20.0 -1.4 34.3 38.6 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 21.7 22.4 21.2 -1.3 35.4 39.7 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 20.9 21.6 20.3 -1.2 35.4 39.7 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 22.0 22.6 20.4 -1.4 33.9 38.5 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 20.9 22.3 21.8 -0.8 40.3 42.6 21.5 23.3 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 24.2 23.4 22.9 -0.2 48.0 49.4 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 22.6 23.4 20.9 -1.1 36.9 40.8 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 20.4 22.0 23.2 -0.4 45.6 45.9 20.8 22.4 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 20.2 21.0 19.4 -1.3 35.2 39.2 20.8 22.4 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 21.0 22.7 23.8 -0.3 46.9 47.3 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 16.6 17.2 17.2 -1.4 33.1 37.9 17.2 18.8 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 21.4 22.2 22.5 -1.2 36.1 39.5 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 21.0 22.4 23.0 -0.6 42.7 43.7 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 21.3 23.0 23.8 -0.1 48.3 48.4 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 20.9 22.1 21.6 -0.9 39.3 42.2 21.5 23.1 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 21.2 22.0 21.6 -1.1 37.3 40.2 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 21.9 22.9 20.2 -0.8 40.1 43.7 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 21.2 22.2 22.5 -0.7 41.1 43.1 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 22.0 23.2 21.5 -0.6 43.0 45.7 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 15.7 16.5 18.6 -1.4 33.8 38.2 16.4 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 21.1 22.7 23.8 -0.3 46.6 47.2 21.4 23.0 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------