***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 22.9 23.0 23.6 0.5 59.6 57.6 21.6 22.5 23.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 23.3 23.6 23.8 0.7 62.4 59.4 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 23.4 23.5 23.9 0.6 60.5 58.0 22.2 23.0 23.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.4 21.0 0.5 59.5 57.4 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 23.7 23.2 21.4 -0.1 47.5 48.1 22.5 23.4 24.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 22.8 22.4 19.4 -0.1 48.6 48.6 21.5 22.5 23.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 22.9 23.2 23.8 0.7 62.6 59.8 21.7 22.5 23.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.2 19.5 -0.2 45.3 46.0 11.6 12.5 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 23.5 22.9 21.9 -0.2 46.6 47.6 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 23.2 22.5 20.4 -0.2 45.7 46.7 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.0 21.3 -0.2 46.7 47.4 22.3 23.2 24.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 22.9 22.3 20.6 -0.2 46.0 46.6 21.6 22.6 23.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.2 20.5 -0.4 42.7 44.1 22.6 23.6 24.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 23.6 23.4 22.0 0.2 54.0 53.0 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 24.1 24.1 22.9 1.0 69.4 65.4 22.3 23.1 23.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 24.4 24.0 21.1 -0.1 48.7 48.9 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.6 23.3 0.6 60.2 57.9 21.2 22.1 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 22.5 22.0 20.0 -0.1 48.0 48.3 21.2 22.1 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 23.1 23.4 23.9 0.7 62.5 59.4 21.8 22.7 23.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.7 18.2 17.7 -0.2 45.5 46.2 17.5 18.4 19.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 23.4 23.1 22.7 -0.1 49.0 49.4 22.2 23.1 23.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 21.7 23.1 23.1 0.3 55.8 54.2 21.9 22.8 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 23.2 23.6 24.0 0.8 64.4 60.9 22.0 22.9 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 23.3 23.1 21.9 0.2 53.2 52.3 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 23.0 22.8 21.8 0.1 51.8 51.6 21.8 22.7 23.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 23.7 23.4 20.3 0.1 51.1 50.4 22.3 23.3 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 23.1 23.1 22.7 0.4 57.0 55.6 21.9 22.7 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.9 21.7 0.6 61.1 58.7 22.3 23.3 24.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.5 19.1 -0.2 46.1 46.8 16.8 17.7 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 23.0 23.4 23.9 0.7 63.0 59.8 21.8 22.7 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------