***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 87 13 0 100 2.3 2.0 1.9 14.9 20.7 14.8 4.2 9.2 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 89 11 0 100 2.4 1.8 1.4 12.0 17.5 12.6 4.5 8.7 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 1.9 1.4 1.8 14.8 20.6 15.0 3.2 7.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 2.7 2.7 2.8 18.6 25.6 18.2 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 2.1 1.9 2.7 20.3 25.1 18.3 3.3 7.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 2.0 2.2 4.1 29.7 32.3 27.1 2.4 5.0 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 86 14 0 100 2.2 1.4 1.5 13.0 18.0 12.7 3.8 8.0 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 4.6 5.2 5.8 33.8 32.6 26.4 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 2.3 2.1 2.6 20.0 24.2 17.7 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 3.5 4.1 5.2 30.5 30.6 23.9 4.5 8.5 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 1.9 2.2 3.5 23.5 28.0 19.6 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 2.5 2.5 3.8 26.5 28.8 22.6 3.2 6.4 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 2.0 2.0 3.0 21.6 25.5 21.0 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 3.1 2.4 3.2 19.6 23.4 17.9 4.5 10.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 1.1 1.4 1.9 15.3 24.4 15.0 2.3 4.9 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 2.4 2.6 2.9 21.0 26.5 20.5 3.4 6.4 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 2.9 2.1 1.9 16.5 20.8 15.0 4.6 9.4 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 4.2 4.9 5.8 33.0 30.0 24.0 5.6 10.6 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 2.4 2.0 1.6 13.7 19.2 14.0 4.3 8.5 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 6.3 7.4 7.6 40.1 33.3 27.6 7.3 13.1 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 2.9 2.7 2.4 19.4 25.0 17.8 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 2.6 1.9 1.9 16.5 21.2 15.6 3.9 8.3 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 2.2 1.9 2.2 17.5 22.7 16.4 3.5 7.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 2.6 2.4 3.6 24.1 26.3 19.6 3.7 8.3 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 2.7 2.4 2.2 16.4 23.0 16.5 4.2 9.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 1.8 1.7 3.2 24.8 28.7 22.8 2.2 5.1 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 2.3 1.8 2.0 15.0 21.4 15.6 4.0 8.8 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 1.6 1.8 2.9 20.5 27.9 18.5 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 6.1 6.9 6.0 33.6 29.5 23.8 7.9 14.7 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 2.5 2.0 1.3 11.3 17.5 12.3 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------