***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.9 14.9 11.8 116.6 70.2 47.6 3.3 7.1 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.2 12.4 12.1 131.2 73.6 46.1 3.4 6.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.8 15.8 12.1 121.8 71.3 48.3 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.1 23.7 13.1 116.6 70.6 46.0 4.6 10.5 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.9 16.9 12.5 117.0 70.4 46.1 3.9 8.2 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 4.0 16.0 12.3 107.4 67.6 43.0 4.4 8.9 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.8 12.6 11.9 127.5 72.8 45.2 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 6.2 22.2 13.2 114.8 69.4 45.5 6.7 12.3 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.8 14.6 12.2 109.9 68.1 45.8 3.9 7.8 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 5.2 19.0 13.6 113.7 69.1 47.2 5.4 10.2 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 4.3 17.2 12.1 121.7 71.3 45.8 4.5 8.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 3.6 14.4 11.3 112.6 68.9 43.7 3.9 7.7 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 4.3 15.5 12.1 113.6 69.4 43.6 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.3 20.6 15.2 121.9 71.0 48.9 5.0 10.1 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 3.7 18.0 12.9 120.5 71.8 43.5 3.6 8.1 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.5 14.3 11.9 120.0 70.9 43.8 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.6 10.3 12.6 132.9 74.1 45.1 2.8 5.1 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.6 17.9 13.5 106.9 66.9 46.2 4.3 9.5 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.9 13.0 12.2 131.1 73.4 46.6 2.9 5.9 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 5.9 20.9 15.8 112.0 68.6 46.7 6.0 11.4 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.8 14.8 11.2 105.4 67.1 44.9 3.8 8.1 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.9 12.0 13.6 134.8 74.5 46.6 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.6 14.8 12.6 131.2 73.4 47.9 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.6 17.4 12.9 110.7 68.1 47.8 4.6 9.2 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.1 16.6 11.9 105.2 67.4 46.2 4.5 9.2 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.8 14.0 11.0 106.3 67.7 43.1 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 5.3 17.8 12.1 112.6 69.2 47.8 4.6 9.2 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 3.5 17.1 12.4 119.7 71.4 44.1 3.4 7.5 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 7.2 28.0 14.3 110.1 67.8 47.3 7.5 15.2 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.7 12.4 12.2 129.8 73.3 46.8 2.8 5.5 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------