***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.1 6.1 10.7 87.2 60.8 42.5 2.1 4.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.4 10.1 12.7 112.5 68.8 49.3 2.1 4.8 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.3 9.1 11.1 92.3 62.6 45.1 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.4 18.2 12.5 99.8 65.8 48.4 6.0 11.3 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.8 11.9 11.9 99.3 65.2 47.7 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 13.9 15.3 16.1 133.6 74.0 54.1 2.7 6.0 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.5 10.6 12.4 108.4 67.7 47.9 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.2 16.9 14.0 108.8 67.6 52.1 5.0 9.6 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.5 9.2 11.3 89.3 61.7 45.6 3.3 6.4 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.1 11.5 13.4 99.6 64.8 49.9 4.1 7.4 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.9 12.7 12.6 110.2 68.5 50.6 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.4 13.4 12.9 117.1 70.1 52.6 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.5 15.3 15.1 138.6 75.2 56.0 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.5 14.6 13.8 97.7 63.7 49.1 4.9 9.4 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 3.9 13.2 11.8 102.6 67.0 47.0 4.0 7.7 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.9 12.7 13.7 127.0 72.6 53.0 2.5 5.4 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.5 10.0 12.5 111.9 68.6 49.4 2.3 4.9 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.8 12.0 13.9 97.5 63.9 49.8 4.7 8.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.0 10.4 12.2 107.2 67.1 48.7 2.7 5.8 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.9 15.4 17.3 106.5 66.7 52.3 4.7 9.1 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.3 8.5 10.3 84.3 60.0 43.7 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.7 10.5 12.4 105.8 66.8 48.4 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.6 11.0 11.7 99.1 64.6 47.8 3.1 6.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.1 10.6 12.6 93.8 62.8 47.8 4.1 7.2 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.2 8.6 10.9 83.3 59.5 43.4 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.3 14.8 14.3 127.5 72.7 52.5 2.9 6.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.3 6.0 10.7 84.6 59.7 42.9 2.1 4.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.4 14.5 12.3 107.4 68.0 49.0 4.3 8.2 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.2 16.8 14.7 100.1 64.5 51.0 6.1 10.9 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.5 9.1 12.5 106.8 67.2 47.6 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------