***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 23.3 33.4 34.7 73.9 44.9 37.3 24.4 37.6 53.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 22.0 36.0 35.7 82.7 50.0 41.3 24.1 36.0 50.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 26.4 37.8 36.9 79.4 47.3 39.7 27.4 40.0 55.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 34.3 54.8 42.9 85.0 52.3 43.7 33.8 51.9 74.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 48.3 41.4 40.6 85.2 52.0 43.5 26.1 39.7 56.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 43.5 44.3 50.0 99.3 58.7 48.1 24.2 36.7 51.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 22.5 36.1 34.7 80.0 49.2 40.8 23.9 36.9 52.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 41.0 61.8 48.8 90.3 52.7 45.1 41.2 58.8 78.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 46.7 39.8 40.7 83.5 50.2 42.4 26.9 39.5 54.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 32.5 46.9 48.3 87.9 51.7 44.6 32.5 45.5 60.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 46.4 42.1 42.8 89.5 53.7 45.1 27.3 39.3 53.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 23.8 39.3 42.6 90.8 54.0 44.8 23.9 36.0 50.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 43.9 41.7 45.8 94.0 55.8 46.1 24.8 37.0 51.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 36.8 50.2 46.5 78.6 45.5 40.0 37.2 55.3 77.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 22.7 42.9 40.6 89.9 56.7 45.1 23.0 36.5 53.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 39.6 37.2 42.8 91.3 55.1 45.5 22.3 33.3 46.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 21.6 37.4 36.8 85.8 52.2 43.1 23.8 35.5 49.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 32.6 46.0 49.3 84.7 48.2 42.8 32.0 48.0 67.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 25.0 37.2 36.0 81.6 48.6 40.7 26.7 38.4 52.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 67.1 60.7 59.8 92.8 52.7 45.9 40.7 57.6 77.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 26.7 40.4 37.1 78.7 47.7 40.2 28.0 42.5 59.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 22.4 37.1 38.6 85.3 51.1 42.9 23.6 36.1 51.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 26.6 37.7 37.2 79.7 46.8 39.9 28.0 39.9 54.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 32.5 45.3 43.6 80.6 46.6 41.0 33.0 48.8 68.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 29.1 41.9 39.0 76.4 46.7 39.9 31.1 44.8 61.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 23.2 41.3 45.0 95.1 56.6 45.8 22.7 35.4 50.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 25.5 36.3 36.9 74.3 45.0 38.2 26.8 41.0 58.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 45.2 42.1 41.6 88.9 55.1 45.0 25.3 37.8 52.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 84.3 72.2 53.6 88.7 50.4 44.8 49.5 71.5 97.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 20.4 32.5 35.7 80.0 48.2 39.9 22.4 33.9 47.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------